White House Races Against Deadline to Resolve Russia-Ukraine Conflict

White House Steps Up Efforts to Resolve Ukrainian Crisis

The White House is racing against the clock to find a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict before another self-imposed deadline, with U.S. President Donald Trump heavily pressuring his special envoy Kurt Witkov to urge Moscow to halt the fighting. Witkov arrived in the Russian capital on Wednesday for talks, just two days before the August 8th deadline Trump set for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement or face potential sanctions. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated he would not abandon military operations in Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter said the Kremlin might offer concessions to the U.S., which could include a halt to airstrikes, to avoid new economic penalties.

Shift in Trump's Stance

Prior to Witkov's visit, there was a noticeable shift in Trump's stance on the conflict. Initially, he focused his pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but in recent weeks, his frustration with Putin has grown. According to those close to him, the images of the destruction of Ukrainian cities by Russian drones have left an impression on the U.S. President.

Oil as Leverage

Trump is now openly betting that Putin's increasing economic woes will ultimately force him to end the fighting, which is now in its fourth year. "If energy prices get low enough, Putin will stop killing," Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. "If you get energy prices down another $10 a barrel, he'll have no choice because his economy is so bad." The U.S. President has threatened to impose so-called secondary sanctions on purchasers of Russian energy to increase pressure on Putin. It's a risky gamble, as the Biden administration has discovered. Punishing Russian oil buyers without shaking global markets requires a delicate calculation that could hurt friends as well as foes.

Doubts About Sanction Effectiveness

Even Trump himself has expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of these sanctions, calling the Russians "cunning guys" who are "very good at circumventing sanctions." At the same time, Trump will seek to avoid any domestic economic consequences. U.S. consumers are still grappling with high oil prices this year, and domestic oil producers may face difficulties in restricting supply. Trump insists he is not worried about the potential impact of sanctions on the U.S., telling reporters on Air Force One last week that the U.S. can increase its energy production. "We have some oil in our country," Trump said. "We will further increase exploration efforts." Unless Witkov can unexpectedly reach a peace agreement, Trump will face greater scrutiny when deciding whether to make good on his latest sanctions threat. The U.S. President has in the past proposed proposals for tougher sanctions on Russia but has backed down in order to preserve space for negotiations.

Risks of Backing Down

If Putin again gets a reprieve from tougher sanctions, it could exacerbate the "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) meme among some investors – a reference to his tariff threats – and may also hurt his self-image as a peacemaker and says he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. If Trump makes good on his sanctions threat, punishing Russian oil buyers would jeopardize already fragile relations between the U.S. and two of the world’s largest economies.

Trade Disputes with India

Trump has been engaged in a war of words with India for several days and said Tuesday morning that he would impose "more tariffs" on top of the 25% tariff rate "in the next 24 hours" because Indian officials have taken a tough stance on energy purchases and said U.S. attacks are unwarranted. Zelensky held a phone call with Trump on Tuesday, calling it a "productive" conversation and drawing his attention to the fact that Russia has intensified its attacks. The White House confirmed the call but did not provide further details about the discussion. Local media reported that Ukrainian officials also expect U.S. envoy Kellogg to arrive in Kyiv before the end of this week.

European Concerns

One European diplomat said some European governments remain concerned that Witkov may be more accommodating to Putin, as he has shown that he is the most willing member of this administration to listen to the Russian President. The source requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. The source said there are also concerns that the Russian goal is to prolong the conflict in Ukraine as long as possible without facing U.S. penalties. After Trump hinted earlier this year that he might abandon efforts to end the conflict, Kyiv and its European allies have pressed Trump to re-engage in calls and meetings. These calls culminated at the NATO summit in June, when other NATO allies agreed to Trump's demands for a sharp increase in defense spending, and he in turn softened his criticism of the alliance.