India-US Trade Challenges: Diplomatic Vacancies Hinder Progress Under Trump

Diplomatic Hurdles Impede India-US Trade Progress

Efforts by Indian officials to engage with the administration of US President Donald Trump have yielded little progress, according to sources familiar with the matter. This is largely due to persistent vacancies in key US diplomatic positions, hindering India's ability to effectively push for a beneficial trade agreement.

The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, indicated that multiple vacancies in both the US State Department and the Department of Defense are making it harder for India to lobby its viewpoints. India's ability to effectively frame its arguments is constrained by the absence of established diplomatic channels.

For India, it has become particularly urgent to present its position to the US. It was unexpectedly hit with tariffs of 25%, among the highest in the region, and faces further threats due to its relationship with Russia. President Trump expressed intentions on Monday to "substantially" raise tariffs because of India's refusal to stop buying Russian oil. The US claims that India is helping President Putin fund his war in Ukraine through its oil purchases.

India has defended its position, calling the criticism from the US and the EU regarding its trade with Russia "unjust and unreasonable." It emphasized that the EU and the US continue to purchase energy and other materials from Russia, "even when such trade is not an urgent need for the nation.""

Escalating Trade Tensions and Diplomatic Gaps

The high tariffs exacerbate already strained relations between the two countries. Trump previously claimed he used trade as leverage to broker peace between India and its rival Pakistan in May, a claim India has vehemently denied. This type of public assertion further complicates bilateral relations.

One of the most critical vacancies in the US is the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, who is responsible for overseeing US foreign policy and relations in the region. Although Paul Kapur, an Indian-American scholar, has been nominated for the position, his appointment has yet to be confirmed.

Additionally, the US Ambassador to India, a crucial role in managing bilateral tensions, has been vacant since January 2025. A career diplomat is currently managing embassy operations in India.

The same source noted that former President Biden's representative to India, Eric Garcetti, was delayed for two years before finally being confirmed. However, strong personal relationships between key officials on both sides helped bridge the gap.

The Impact of NSC Downsizing

These challenges are compounded by the sharp reduction in staff at the National Security Council (NSC), from over 300 officials under Biden to approximately 50 officials in Trump's second term. This downsizing limits the council's ability to effectively address complex issues.

The Trump administration dismissed dozens of NSC staff members in May as officials sought to transform the committee into a smaller organization focused on executing Trump's policies rather than helping to formulate them. This shift in focus reduces the expertise available for decision-making on issues pertaining to India.

While India seeks to strengthen ties with the US, these structural and diplomatic challenges are impeding progress. Addressing these vacancies and fostering strong personal relationships between officials is crucial to ensuring fruitful trade and diplomatic relations. It's important for businesses and policymakers alike to understand these dynamics as they navigate the India-US relationship. The stability and predictability of this relationship are vital for global trade and security.