Morning Note: US Jobs Data in Focus; USD/CAD Jumps; Apple's Upgrade Cycle

Markets Focus on Upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

U.S. non-farm employment rose by 147,000 in June, but July’s forecast is lower at 106,000, suggesting slower job growth as businesses grow cautious amid tighter credit and economic uncertainty. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in June and are expected to rise to 0.3% in July, possibly due to firms raising wages to retain talent amid persistent inflation.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June and is projected to climb slightly to 4.2% in July. This could reflect more people entering the labour force or a gradual pickup in layoffs. These events are set to be released at 1230 GMT today. Overall, the data points to a cooling labour market, consistent with the Fed’s soft-landing objective of slowing growth without triggering a sharp downturn.

(Gold Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, gold recently rebounded from the support zone of 3,230 – 3,250, pushing the price up to retest the resistance zone at 3,425 – 3,445. However, bearish pressure rejected the breakout attempt, driving the price lower. It broke below the order block of 3,333 – 3,350, retested it, was rejected again, and continued to move lower. This valid bearish movement may potentially drive the price down to retest the 3,230 – 3,250 support zone and collect liquidity around the equal low at 3,246.62.

U.S. Dollar Rises as U.S. Hikes Canada Tariffs

The U.S. dollar is heading for its best week in nearly three years, boosted by renewed trade tensions after President Trump raised tariffs on Canadian goods. On Thursday, he signed an order increasing tariffs from 25% to 35% on all products not covered by the USMCA, citing Canada's failure to stop fentanyl smuggling. The White House also blamed Canada's "continued inaction and retaliation," extending a months-long tariff dispute.

Tensions rose further after Trump claimed Prime Minister Mark Carney reached out for talks, though no conversation occurred. He added that a deal would be “very hard” after Canada supported Palestinian statehood. Ottawa officials rejected the fentanyl claim, saying little originates from Canada and border controls have been tightened. In June, Carney warned that if no deal is made by August 1, Canada may impose more tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminium.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/CAD currency pair has recently rebounded from the support zone of 1.3560 – 1.3590, surged upwards, and broke above the swap zone of 1.3745 – 1.3775. This valid bullish movement could potentially continue to push the pair higher toward the resistance zone of 1.3970 – 1.4000. However, a complex pullback may also occur during this upward move.

Apple’s Revenue Rises, Upgrade Cycle in Focus

Apple posted strong results this quarter, with revenue growing 9.6% year-on-year to $94.04 billion, beating Wall Street’s expectations by 5%. The Products segment, which includes the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods, saw 8.2% growth, also topping estimates by 6.1%. Despite recent stagnation in product sales, this pickup suggests more customers are beginning to upgrade their devices. The market is watching closely to see if Apple Intelligence and iOS 18 can further drive this trend.

With an installed base of over 2 billion devices, Apple continues to demonstrate that large-scale companies can still grow. Its total revenue rose from $273.9 billion five years ago to $408.6 billion in the past year, reflecting a solid 8.3% annualised growth rate. However, product sales, which account for 74.2% of revenue, have grown more slowly, only 6.4% annually over five years and were flat over the past two years. The company now looks to its new AI-powered features, launched in September 2024, to potentially spark a new upgrade cycle, especially as they are limited to newer devices.

(Apple Daily Share Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Apple's price chart was recently rejected from the resistance zone of 213 – 217, as indicated by a series of consecutive bearish candles. Moreover, the price has been moving within a consolidation range since late April. Therefore, this rejection from resistance may potentially drive the price downward to retest the support zone of 190 – 194, continuing the consolidation phase until either zone is decisively broken.