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금요일 Oct 4 2024 13:17
4 분
Scores on the doors: sterling is set for its worst week in more than a year, oil heads for its best week in nearly two years, while the US dollar is close to a 6-week high.
Oil prices spiked higher again, pushing Brent to its highest level since the end of August and bringing its week-to-date rally to about 8%. President Biden indicated the U.S. was looking at the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure — to be fair, I don’t think taking some Iranian barrels off the market would be a problem for Saudi Arabia or Russia. Iran accounts for about 1.7m bpd in supply — OPEC+ has lots more than this in spare capacity. What has really spooked the market first, vaguely, is the idea of a general war and second, specifically, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
We looked at commodities — including oil — in this week’s edition of the Overleveraged podcast (caveat emptor: this was recorded before the Iranian attack on Israel).
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Energy stocks were among the small number of gainers yesterday on Wall Street as the major indices all fell. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers by about 4-1. Nvidia jumped 3% as CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its new chips is “insane”. The S&P 500 may have had a rocky start to November but the first nine months of the year was the best since 1997, says Bespoke.
European stocks opened mixed on Friday with some general softness early turning into a more positive session all round. Look to see if these gains can be held into the NFP today, which is going to be the big data point. The consensus forecast is about 140,000 with a range of +70,000 to +220,000. Unemployment is seen steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings seen at +3.8% year-on-year.
GBPUSD is having a terrible time after recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey – seems bit of a ham-fisted way to nudge the markets to expecting a faster rate of cuts only a couple of weeks after pushing the slow and steady narrative.
This morning, GBPUSD sat at the 1.3140 support area we’d flagged on Sep. 27 with the RSI divergence and long-term horizontal resistance which indicated a topping pattern.
The UK's FTSE 100 index looks to be increasingly choppy and nervous, lacking any direction and prime for a big move.
Checking in on the “buy everything” China-related trade from David Tepper – still going.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is looking to break out from Jan ’23 rally high.
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