Week ahead: Tech rally hinges on Nvidia earnings

The massive rally in technology stocks rests to some extent on Nvidia earnings due up on Wednesday. The Nasdaq has jumped by almost 30% in 2024, with Nvidia up by 200%. Its earnings and outlook for 2025 will be crucial to sustaining the momentum in the stock and the wider tech space. Elsewhere, look to UK inflation figures for the Bank of England’s next move, and the week ends with a bout of flash PMI data releases. Revised UoM consumer sentiment data will include the first post-election health check of the US consumer.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, Nov 18th: G20 Summit

G20 meetings kick off in Rio de Janeiro, with the heads of government looking at issues like climate change, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the imminent presidency of Donald J Trump. The 2024 Summit’s theme is ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet’. There is limited economic data – just Japan core machinery orders, UK house prices, trade data from the Euro area and the German Buba monthly report.

Tuesday, November 19th: Canada Inflation

Canadian inflation data will be closely watched for the next steps from the Bank of Canada (BoC). The central bank cut by 50bps last month, lowering the policy rate from 4.25% to 3.75%, with governor Tiff Macklem leaving the door open to further cuts. Monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will provide some further clues about its next steps. Final CPI readings for the Eurozone will guide expectations of the European Central Bank’s outlook. On the earnings front, we look to Medtronic (MDT, Walmart (WMT) and XPeng (XPEV).

Wednesday, November 20th: Nvidia Earnings

UK CPI data will steer Bank of England rate expectations, whilst Chinese interest rates could be in for a tweak. However, the main focus is on Nvidia earnings. Piper Sandler raised its price target on the stock ahead of earnings to $175 from $140, naming the company its top large-cap pick as it cited the launch of Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell chip and lead within artificial intelligence. Investors will be hungry for guidance on the new chips. According to Piper Sandler, Nvidia’s Blackwell chip should become available in the first quarter of next year and could bring in between $5 billion and $8 billion.

“As supply improves, we see more customers coming on for Blackwell beyond initial hyperscaler adoption in the following April quarter,” analyst Harsh Kumar wrote. “Given expanded GPU allocations and initial shipments of the Grace Blackwell for inference applications; we are projecting Blackwell architecture revenues could increase to the tune of 200%+ in the April quarter following supply constraints.”

Thursday, November 21st: UK Government Borrowing

UK public sector net borrowing data will be closely watched by sterling traders as it comes soon after the Budget, which greatly raised the amount of money the government would need to borrow. This has the potential to press on gilt yields and the pound. Existing home sales in the US will give a clue about how a rapid rise in bond yields since the Fed’s September meeting is impacting homebuyers. The Philly Fed manufacturing index will offer a taste of the strength of the US economy, one of the first in the wake of the election. Weekly unemployment claims are to be watched as usual. On the earnings side, Baidu (BIDU), Deere & Co (DE) and Intuit (INTU) are up.

Friday, November 22nd: UoM Consumer Sentiment

The week rounds out with a deluge of PMI surveys. First, to Germany, where the economic performance has continued to underwhelm. HTe manufacturing PMI ticked up in October but from a very low level after plunging to 40.3 in September. Across the wider Euro area, there has been a similar picture of weakness. Provisional PMI survey data for October showed that business activity in the euro area ticked lower for the second month running. Output was scaled back in response to a weakening demand environment, with new orders down for the fifth consecutive month, according to S&P Global. Flash data for the UK and US will also be released, whilst the revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey data for November may offer some post-election colour (Note: the preliminary survey for November was concluded before the election; however, the final reading will feature interviews with consumers following the election as well).