Week ahead: US earnings season kicks off, ECB hold expected

Earnings season gets into full swing on Wall Street with some big-name stocks like Netflix and Goldman Sachs among those reporting updates. The European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting for the first time since it cut interest rates in June, with markets anticipating no change this time with policymakers seen in no rush to ease further. UK inflation data will be crucial for sterling and whether markets believe the Bank of England will begin cutting rates in August.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, July 15th: Fed Chair Powell Speaks

The week starts with several economic releases as earnings season on Wall Street gets into full swing. Q2 GDP data from China will be the highlight as the Asian session gets underway. China’s recovery has been uneven and inflation data betrays demand is soft, but a better-than-expected reading in Q1 has lifted confidence a bit. First quarter GDP grew by 5.3% vs 4.8% expected, though the retail sales figures and property numbers remained relatively weak.

There will also be lending figures from China ahead of the Empire State manufacturing index from the US. Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, is due to speak at the Economic Club in Washington D.C.

Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS)

Tuesday, July 16th: US Retail Sales

Trade data and economic sentiment reports from the Euro area will be eyed early on Tuesday. Canada’s CPI inflation is due later with the focus then on the US retail sales numbers with consumers showing signs of strain. US retail sales barely rose in May and previous months were revised down amid signs that consumers are starting to really struggle. New Zealand’s CPI inflation report is due only a week after the RBNZ signaled much greater confidence inflation would return to target, teeing up a potential rate cut this year.

Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Wednesday, July 17th: UK Inflation Data Due

Sterling crosses will be in focus with the next UK CPI inflation report. A sharp decline in inflation has set up a potential rate cut from the Bank of England this summer. CPI inflation declined to a rate of 2.0% in May, figures released in June showed.

But market expectations for a rate cut in August, when the Bank of England next meets, may be wide of the mark, according to one policymaker at least. Last Monday MPC member Jonathan Haskel said he “would rather hold rates” until there were further signs of cooler inflation. Which probably makes this report make or break for an August cut.

Earnings: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Thursday, July 18th: ECB Rate Decision

The European Central Bank cut rates in June but did not offer a clear path as to when the cut may come. Many feel that the ECB is minded to wait for fresh staff projections in September and take a slow-and-steady approach to removing restrictions. The ECB chose to cut rates despite not only a slight rise in inflation ahead of the meeting, but also with staff forecasts showing higher inflation. Inflation forecasts were raised to 2.5% from 2.3% this year, 2.2% from 2.0% in 2025.

"If we have no major negative surprises, then based on our forecasts, I would say there is room for a second cut," said Pierre Wunsch, Belgium's central bank governor, who noted that there is no hurry to move. "There is probably a premium in waiting for a meeting with new forecasts that confirm the picture, but I would not make that a condition.”

So, markets are expecting the ECB to hold and wait for fresh data. US weekly unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are due.

Earnings: Abbott Labs (ABT), Blackstone (BX), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Netflix (NFLX)

Friday, July 19th: Japan Inflation Data

The Japanese yen has been in sharp focus after sinking to 40-year lows, partly because the Bank of Japan seems be taking baby steps to normalise policy whilst the Fed has kept rates higher for longer. So, the national core CPI inflation report will be eyed for anything that could spur the BoJ into more decisive action. Figures last month suggested the weak yen was feeding into higher prices as consumer prices rose 2.8% from a year earlier in May, compared with the 2.5% increase in April.

Meanwhile there be an announcement on China’s key central bank lending rates. UK and Canadian retail sales are also due up.

Earnings: American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB)