Jumaat Sep 20 2024 13:39
4 min.
J.P. Morgan was out with this yesterday:
“Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%”.
The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, closed yesterday’s trading up 1.7% at 5,713.64 — a record high.
The dollar continues to linger at multi-month lows. Sterling has gone to $1.33, its best in a long time, with the Bank of England standing pat on rates. The UK now has higher rates for an economy that is growing at a speed about one third that of the US and inflation is lower — go figure. The Bank of Japan was also unchanged overnight.
This week the Federal Reserve went large, opting for a 50-basis-point cut, while the BoE and Norges Bank stood still, South Africa’s Reserve Bank cut for the first time in years, and Brazil hiked — which means monetary policy divergence is back. Combined with the Fed doing the jumbo cut, it’s a) good news for emerging markets and b) good news for FX volatility — if that’s your thing.
Kira P/L andaian anda (kos dan caj teragregat) jika anda membuka perdagangan hari ini.
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Arah
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Amaun hendaklah kurang daripada
Amaun hendaklah gandaan kenaikan minimum lot
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Prestasi masa lalu bukan petunjuk yang boleh dipercayai tentang hasil masa hadapan.
Semua kedudukan pada instrumen yang berdenominasi dalam mata wang yang berbeza daripada mata wang akaun anda adalah tertakluk kepada yuran penukaran pada keluar kedudukan juga.
The BoJ stood still and said there is no need to hurry rate hikes — given the Fed’s jumbo move another kick in the guts to the low volume carry would have been unnecessary. But a key inflation gauge has accelerated for a fourth straight month, so they will have to hike at some point. The South African central bank was able to kick off its easing cycle, largely thanks to the Fed, I suppose, but also because inflation has cooled a lot.
August’s 4.4% print was the first time it dipped below the midpoint of the SARB’s 3-6% target range in more than three years. Brazil is going the other direction and it seems the hike was about restoring credibility (note, I am not a watcher of LatAm markets). The Norges Bank is seen cutting soon, while the Bank of England is seen cutting even sooner.
The gold price rallied to fresh all-time highs this morning – rates down, economy purring along nicely – the hedge against reacceleration in inflation is clearly a factor here beyond simple weak dollar/lower real yields mechanics.
There appears to be no stopping the 4D trade (debt debasement and dollar devaluation) and I can’t see why we don’t get to $3,000 in the next year, though we are ripe for a retracement at this stage with the extension higher maybe needing some consolidation.
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