Trump Turns His Gaze to Europe on Ukraine
As Ukraine and its allies digest the surprise of U.S. President Trump’s latest optimistic pronouncements about its fight against Russia, signs are emerging that the U.S. president is reverting to a familiar tactic: pressuring Europe, rather than Russia.
Trump’s Tuesday social media post reversed his past assertions that Ukraine had “no cards to play” in the battle. But he offered no new U.S. measures to support Kyiv, instead leaving the matter to its European allies. The post also made no mention of any new moves to tighten sanctions on Russia.
Cautious Welcome to Shift in Tone
In public, Ukrainian and European officials have welcomed the shift in Trump’s rhetoric, which came after his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky. But privately, they were more guarded, sensing that Trump was passing the responsibility for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict to them. While Trump appeared to set a floor for U.S. support, easing allies’ concerns about a cutoff of crucial military aid to Ukraine, officials also cautioned that Trump’s views could shift again.
Unrealistic Expectations?
His assertion that Ukraine could retake its Russian-occupied 20% of territory with European support also runs counter to most allied intelligence assessments, which see a stalemate as the best outcome either side can currently expect. Since Trump hosted Putin in Alaska last month to discuss a peace deal, the Kremlin has sharply intensified its air strikes, although its advances on the ground have been limited.
Trump Just "Wants to Annoy Putin"
Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine during Trump’s first term, said Trump’s description of Russia as a “paper tiger” on the brink of economic crisis “was really just to annoy Putin, but he didn’t imply he was going to take any action on it.”
The Russian economy is increasingly feeling the pinch, with the Russian government warning Wednesday that it plans to raise taxes to help offset costs, while Ukrainian strikes on energy and other infrastructure have reached deep into rear areas.
Sanction Threats Unfulfilled
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has periodically threatened sweeping new sanctions, saying it would force Russia to the negotiating table, but he has rarely followed through, repeatedly giving Putin more time even as the Russian leader escalated his attacks on Ukraine.
Shift in Tone Welcomed
U.S. officials this week assured allies that, given Russia’s escalation since the Alaska summit, including most recently an incursion into NATO airspace, the administration recognizes the need for a new approach to change Putin’s mindset. For allies, the shift in Trump’s tone about Ukraine’s chances of victory is a welcome change, just last month he was asking Kyiv to cede territory in exchange for a peace deal.
Europe Urged to Step Up
“You saw the president’s disappointment and frankly, disappointment in Putin,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told Fox News on Wednesday. “You are seeing Europe, at the president’s urging, increasingly step up.” A White House official said Trump has made clear this is not America’s war, and Europeans must step up and lead on their own defense.
Pressure on Europe to Cut Russian Energy Imports
As allies have called for increased pressure on Russia, Trump has ramped up his fire on Europe, demanding it cut its purchases of oil and gas from Russia. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in February 2022, the EU’s purchases of Russian energy have fallen sharply. The EU has pledged to accelerate the pace of curbing remaining oil and liquefied natural gas flows, hoping that is enough to satisfy Trump.
Punitive Tariffs?
Trump has also demanded the EU use tariffs as high as 100% to punish countries that have stepped in and increased purchases of Russian fuel since the conflict began, a far more onerous task for European allies.
Trump reiterated those conditions in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, saying Europe had a responsibility to take the “exact same measures” that he has threatened, namely punitive tariffs.
Tactic to Shift Attention
“This is partly a tactic to shift and distract, it’s a bit like passing the ball to the Europeans and saying, ‘Okay, you go first,’” said Liana Fix, a senior fellow for European affairs at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.
Direct Steps to Reduce Russian Energy Revenue
If the U.S. is serious about cutting Russia’s energy revenue, there are more direct steps it could take. According to people familiar with the matter, the EU’s biggest “offenders” — Hungary and Slovakia, whose leaders also have the closest ties to the Trump administration — have so far faced no specific pressure from the U.S. other than being asked to comply with the EU’s sanctions on Moscow.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is “one of my friends,” adding “I haven’t spoken to him yet, but I have a feeling if I did, he might stop, and I think I’ll do that.”
Lowering the Russian Oil Price Cap
EU officials say the U.S. could more quickly hit Russia’s financial machine by lowering its price cap on Russian oil to match the EU’s $47.60 a barrel level.
Military Escalation to Pressure Ukraine
Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine to negotiate on his terms, and that Trump is unlikely to do much to bolster Kyiv’s defenses, foreign media has reported citing sources close to the Kremlin.
Trump "Still Wants to Make a Deal"
For Putin, Trump “still wants to make a deal, and make money once the deal is done,” Volker said, and new sanctions might complicate that.
“So he’s not looking at what the U.S. can do, but instead pushing the responsibility onto Europe,” he added. “All of this could change again tomorrow. He might call Putin and say, ‘Okay, we had a great call.’”
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