India, Russia Expand Trade Amid US Tariff Pressure

India and Russia Expand Trade Cooperation Amid US Tariffs

India and Russia announced Thursday an expansion of bilateral trade cooperation, signaling that U.S. tariff pressure over India’s purchase of Russian oil is unlikely to shake the partnership between the two countries.

Background: US Tariffs and the India-Russia Response

Currently, Indian goods exported to the U.S. face additional tariffs of up to 50%—a result of escalated tariff threats from the Trump administration targeting its substantial Russian energy imports. At a joint press conference in Moscow, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that Indo-Russian relations are “one of the most stable major power relationships globally post-World War II.” Both sides pledged to boost trade volume, including increasing Indian exports of pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and textiles to Russia to reduce the current trade imbalance.

The Numbers: Trade Volume and Oil Imports

Data shows that Indo-Russian bilateral trade reached a record $68.7 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025, including a $59 billion Indian trade deficit due to increased oil imports. Jaishankar added that other cooperation plans include sending Indian IT, construction, and engineering technical workers to Russia to alleviate Russian labor shortages.

Energy Cooperation and Regional Development

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that cooperation between the two sides in the oil and gas sector and Russian oil supplies to India are “making significant progress,” and pledged to advance joint energy development projects such as the Russian Far East and Arctic continental shelf. He emphasized, “In the current challenging international environment, the contribution of this strategic partnership to regional security and stability cannot be ignored.”

Defending Russian Oil Imports

In response to Western accusations that India’s imports of Russian oil fund the Ukrainian conflict, New Delhi countered that the U.S. government had asked India to purchase Russian oil to stabilize the market, and pointed out that the U.S. and Europe themselves still maintain trade relations with Russia. An official at the Russian Embassy in India revealed on Wednesday that despite U.S. pressure, Russian oil supplies to India will maintain current levels, and expressed hope to facilitate a trilateral meeting with India and China as soon as possible.

Analysis: A Strategic Partnership and the Impact of Tariffs

“Regardless of the political situation, India’s oil imports are expected to remain constant,” stated Roman Babushkin, the Russian chargé d’affaires in India at a press conference. Daniel Balazs, a researcher at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, pointed out that “since the 1970s, Russia has been a close strategic partner of India, and Trump’s tariff threats cannot change that.” He added that this pressure may even act as a catalyst, prompting India to agree to Russia’s proposal to hold a trilateral meeting with China.

Key Figures: Indian Oil Imports

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that in the first half of 2025, India became the second-largest buyer of Russian oil with an average import of 1.6 million barrels per day (compared to only 50,000 barrels per day in 2020), but still lagged behind China’s 2 million barrels per day.

Trump’s Real Aim: Using Tariffs as Leverage

Geopolitical experts point out that the Trump administration’s real intention is not to contain Russian oil revenue, but to use tariffs as leverage from trading partners—both to push India to reach a trade agreement and to pressure Putin to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The Trump-Putin Meeting

Trump hosted Putin in Alaska last week in his first visit to the U.S. in nearly a decade, and the two traveled together in the presidential car to the meeting location. However, this meeting did not achieve significant progress on the issue of a ceasefire in Ukraine, and the Russian side reiterated its opposition to any short-term ceasefire agreement.

India's Support for Diplomacy

Lavrov revealed at the joint press conference on Thursday that he had informed the Indian side of the content of the relevant meetings. Jaishankar emphasized, “India has always advocated resolving differences through dialogue and diplomatic means.”

Conclusion: Energy and Geopolitics

Behind this trade game lies a deep competition in global energy and geopolitics. While the United States seeks to reshape supply chains with tariffs, India and Russia are seeking to build a closer strategic alliance with energy ties.