Morning Note: US-China Trade Deadlock; Nvidia's AI Leap; Canada Votes

Are U.S.-China Trade Talks Going Nowhere?

The U.S. dollar broadly retreated on Thursday as investor sentiment again soured amid a lack of tangible progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute. This shift followed a brief wave of optimism the previous day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked that the ongoing de facto trade embargo with China was unsustainable, yet emphasised that the U.S. would not be the first to reduce its tariffs, which currently exceed 100% on certain Chinese goods.
Meanwhile, China stated that no economic or trade negotiations had taken place and urged the U.S. to lift all unilateral tariff measures if it genuinely wished to reach a resolution, leaving market participants just as uncertain as earlier in the week. Despite the mounting scepticism, President Trump insisted on Thursday that trade discussions with China were in progress. “They had a meeting this morning,” he told reporters, without specifying who was involved in the talks.

(U.S Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index has been trending bearish, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. It is currently retesting the swap zone between 99.30 and 99.60. If it breaks above this zone in the near term, a move higher to retest the resistance area at 101.30 – 101.60 is possible. Conversely, if it faces rejection at the swap zone, the bearish trend may continue, potentially pushing the index lower.

Markets Eye Trade Talks Over Canada’s Election

The Canadian dollar recovered some of Wednesday’s losses against its U.S. Dollar on Thursday, supported by rising oil prices and investor uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar broadly weakened as optimism gave way to renewed concerns over stalled progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade war. While Canada’s upcoming federal election draws attention, it’s not expected to affect CAD sentiment in the short term significantly. For now, the spotlight remains on U.S. trade policy and its potential impact on the Canadian dollar.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/CAD currency pair has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of February 2025, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, bearish momentum pushed the pair lower, breaking below the swap zone between 1.3920 and 1.3950. If the pair can close above this zone in the near term, it may surge upward to retest the resistance area at 1.4070 – 1.4100. Conversely, if it fails to close above the swap zone, the bearish trend may continue, driving the pair lower.

Nvidia Unveils NeMo to Power Enterprise AI Agents

Nvidia is deepening its push into the enterprise AI space with the launch of NeMo microservices, a new platform designed to help businesses develop AI agents, which Nvidia refers to as "AI teammates", and can operate autonomously to support enterprise tasks. This move aligns with Nvidia's broader strategy of combining its powerful GPU hardware with a software ecosystem that encourages user retention. Notably, NeMo is cloud-agnostic, allowing customers to deploy it across different cloud providers, an attractive feature for many enterprise tech buyers.
Although the adoption of AI agents has been gradual, Nvidia is working to simplify the integration process. By enabling easier incorporation of internal business data into AI systems, the company aims to accelerate enterprise adoption and position itself as a key enabler of practical, scalable AI applications.

(Nvidia Share Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Nvidia’s share price has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of January 2025, as indicated by the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Currently, it is retesting the swap zone between 105 and 108. If the price can close above this zone with bullish momentum, it may potentially surge upward to retest the resistance area between 128 and 131. Conversely, if bearish pressure prevents a breakout above the swap zone, the price may decline further to retest the support zone between 91 and 94.

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