Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Chances: Undermining International Order?

Trump's Dim Nobel Peace Prize Prospects

Experts suggest that former U.S. President Donald Trump faces significant hurdles in receiving the Nobel Peace Prize due to what they perceive as his undermining of the international order valued by the Nobel Committee. Furthermore, his lobbying efforts for the award may backfire.

A member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee disclosed to Reuters that the awarding body tends to operate independently, free from external pressure. The committee might prefer to award the prize to a humanitarian organization, especially since their work has become more challenging due to Trump's cuts to U.S. foreign aid.

Potential recipients include the UNHCR, UNICEF, the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, or grassroots organizations like Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms.

Why Experts Deem Trump Unqualified

Nobel Peace Prize historian Asle Sveen stated that Trump has no chance of winning the prize, citing his support for Israel in the Gaza conflict and his attempts to mend relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This contradicts the prize's criteria, which awards individuals who have made the greatest contribution to fostering friendly relations between nations.

Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, concurred, pointing to the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and the Paris Climate Accord, as well as Trump's trade war against long-standing allies. Graeger believes these actions are inconsistent with the image of a 'peace-advocating president' or someone 'genuinely intending to promote peace.'

Lessons from the Past: Surprises in Prize History

Despite this, the prize has seen some unexpected choices, such as Barack Obama's award less than eight months into his presidency and Henry Kissinger's during the height of the Vietnam War. Henrik Syse, a former member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, notes that the prize can be awarded to individuals who have committed brutal acts or exercised authoritarian rule, provided they acknowledge the problems with their past actions and take steps to correct them. He cites F.W. de Klerk, the last leader of apartheid South Africa, who shared the prize with Nelson Mandela in 1993, as an example.

Graeger suggests that if Trump could pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt the Gaza conflict, he might become a candidate for discussion.

Intense Lobbying Efforts

Many individuals and organizations lobby for the Nobel Peace Prize, but Trump has been particularly vocal. He used his platform as U.S. President to express his belief that he deserved the award, including during his speech at the UN General Assembly.

However, the vice chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee indicates that such campaigns often backfire. Asle Toje suggests that the committee prefers to operate in a closed environment, away from external interference.

Who are the Possible Winners?

Besides humanitarian organizations, the Nobel Committee might look to UN agencies, such as the International Court of Justice or the UN itself, which celebrates its 80th anniversary this year. Additionally, given the record number of journalists killed while reporting news in the past year, the prize could be awarded to an organization concerned with protecting journalists, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders. Local mediators who have contributed to ceasefires or facilitated aid delivery in conflict zones may also be recognized.

Analyzing Potential Trends in Nobel Peace Prize Selections

The Nobel Peace Prize selection often reflects current global concerns. For example, heightened attention to climate change could lead to recognition of environmental activists or organizations involved in peacebuilding through environmental sustainability. Furthermore, advancements in technology have brought new challenges and opportunities for peace, so figures who promote ethical uses of technology or combat misinformation could also be contenders.

It is important to remember that the Nobel Committee is committed to upholding Alfred Nobel's vision, which is promoting diplomacy, disarmament, and fraternity between nations.