Easing Sanctions on Russia: A Delicate Balance Between Ceasefire and European Interests

Easing Sanctions on Russia for a Ceasefire: Is it Feasible?

Sources close to the European Commission President have indicated that Ukraine's allies are evaluating the gradual easing of sanctions on Russia if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement can be reached. This proposal aims to achieve a 15-day truce during which sanctions would be temporarily frozen, paving the way for a more sustainable resolution to the conflict.

The EU's Position and Diverging Interests

Italy, for example, insists on the need for Europe to be involved in any talks between US President Trump and his Russian counterpart Putin regarding Ukraine. This stems from the ongoing European demand for increased military spending, thus requiring participation in decisions related to European security. Italy emphasizes the need for clear military, economic, and political guarantees for Ukraine.

Potential Challenges and Obstacles

However, easing sanctions faces significant obstacles. Analysts argue that tempting Putin with sanctions relief may not be sufficient. Trump may offer to ease restrictions on Russian banks and companies at the Alaska summit, but this would have little impact without European cooperation. Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian energy by 2027 and is unlikely to significantly increase its purchases. Furthermore, countries like Poland have deep concerns about Russian expansion, making the EU wary of any move that could bolster Russia's military capabilities.

Russia's Economic Situation and Resilience

Despite sanctions, Russia has managed to maintain relative stability in its economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth of around 1% per year in the next three years. This is partly due to Russia's ability to redirect its energy exports to other countries. For example, European natural gas imports from Russia have fallen by about two-thirds, but Russia's fossil fuel revenues have not declined to the same extent.

Alternative Strategies: Threatening Stricter Sanctions

Some analysts argue that the best strategy for achieving peace is to threaten stricter sanctions. This could include targeting the "shadow fleet" used by Russia to circumvent the oil price cap, or imposing tariffs or sanctions on countries that buy Russian fossil fuels. However, Trump appears hesitant to take such steps, fearing their impact on oil prices and American consumers.

Conclusion

Overall, Putin is unlikely to make significant concessions at the Alaska summit, especially if he believes the situation in Ukraine is moving in his favor. And if Trump's stance is weak, the conflict could drag on. It is important to understand the complex dynamics of sanctions and their impact on the Russian economy, as well as the diverging interests of European countries, to assess the prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.