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12 hours ago
Bank of Canada: The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. This is considered feasible due to their inflation rate being close to their 2% target at 1.7%. Slower growth and falling prices indicate lower spending, justifying potential rate cuts. Federal Reserve: The expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut. Although US inflation is near the Fed's 2% target, any rise could cause market concern. Technical analysis of inflation data suggests a potential breakout to the upside from a falling channel pattern. The Fed needs to balance labor market concerns with inflation figures. BOE: The expectation is for the rate to remain the same at 4%. A surprise cut to 3.75 would be unexpected because UK inflation is picking up, nearing 4%. The number of members favoring a rate cut will be closely watched. Previously, five members were in favor; now, only two are. If more members from the 'unchanged' block shift towards a cut, this could influence the British pound. GBPUSD: The pair has cleared the 1.3585 territory, completing a complex inverted head and shoulders pattern. As long as it stays above it, I anticipate further upside potential. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be crucial; a headline remaining the same and a slight decline in core year-on-year inflation might bring the pair back down. Bank of Japan: The BOJ is expected to maintain the current rate, with a potential hike anticipated in October. This decision will heavily rely on upcoming inflation numbers from Japan. Core inflation is expected to be on the lower side. If the inflation drops below the forecast of 2.7, a rate hike is less likely. EURJPY: I am observing weakness in the Japanese yen against the euro. The formation looks like an ascending triangle pattern. Awaiting a clearance through one of the sides in order to consider the next short-term directional move. USDJPY: The pair is relatively flat, waiting for the Fed's decision more than the BOJ's. The BOJ's decision will just be an extra variable. The prevailing trend was to the downside, so I'm slightly leaning towards the downside on this one as I am not a strong believer in the strong dollar. GBPJPY: The pair has pushed through the 200 zone. If it can stay above it, I will consider some higher levels, potentially targeting 202 and 203.80.
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