October ADP Report: An Overview
Data released by ADP on Wednesday indicated slightly stronger than expected private sector wage growth in October, offering a glimmer of hope that the labor market is not in danger of collapsing.
Labor Market Performance
The ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, the largest gain since July 2025, exceeding expectations of 28,000. However, September's total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 jobs.
Market Reactions
Following the release of the ADP report, spot gold briefly fell $4 before quickly rebounding. The dollar index edged up 7 points.
Sector-Specific Analysis
Construction
The construction industry saw an increase of 5,000 jobs in October, compared to a decrease in September. The median year-over-year wage growth rate was 4.5%, the same as in September.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000, with the median year-over-year wage growth rate holding steady at 4.8%.
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
This sector experienced a significant increase of 47,000 jobs, with the median year-over-year wage growth rate remaining flat at 4.3%.
Financial Services
Financial services added 11,000 jobs, with the median year-over-year wage growth rate unchanged at 5.2%.
Professional and Business Services
Professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, and the median year-over-year wage growth rate remained at 4.2%.
ADP Insights
ADP noted that the rebound in employment was not broad-based, with education and healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities leading the growth. In contrast, professional and business services, information, leisure, and hospitality continued to experience layoffs for the third consecutive month.
Expert Commentary
Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, stated that job growth was lower than earlier reports in 2024. She also noted that pay growth has remained essentially flat for over a year, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
Impact of Government Shutdown
Given the ongoing government shutdown, the ADP data takes on increased significance as an indicator of the labor market. The US Labor Secretary has emphasized that economic data will not be released until the shutdown ends.
Caution in Interpretation
Economists urge caution when interpreting ADP data, citing methodological differences and other limitations. The report is limited to private companies that rely on ADP for payroll management, potentially reducing its national representation.
Federal Reserve Stance
Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about the labor market, beginning to believe that the risk of a weakening job market outweighs upward inflationary pressures. At the last policy meeting, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the prospect of a rate cut in December remains uncertain.
Other Data Under Review
Despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data freeze, officials will be reviewing other data this week, including the monthly layoff report and unemployment claims reports.
Market Concerns
Recent high-profile layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have heightened concerns about the employment outlook. While unemployment claims remain generally low, the current low-dismissal-rate labor environment could evolve into more layoffs in the coming months, potentially driving up unemployment rates.
EN
