Alt DAT Season Survival Analysis: Post-Market Crash, Is It Over?

Alt DAT Season Survival Analysis: Post-Market Crash, Is It Over?

We are in the midst of the so-called "Alt DAT season," a strategy for publicly traded companies to accumulate digital assets as a core part of their operations. Since the emergence of BitMine in July 2025, the market has seen a surge in Alt DAT companies, but they haven't truly been tested under downtrend market conditions. This analysis explores whether Alt DAT stocks were impacted more severely than the underlying cryptocurrencies during a historic crash in October 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• Introduction to the Alt DAT concept and its significance in the cryptocurrency market.
• Analysis of the major crash event on October 10, 2025, and its impact on the cryptocurrency market.
• Evaluation of the resilience of Alt DAT companies by comparing mNAV (market net asset value multiple), stock performance, and cryptocurrency price changes.
• Study of the sensitivity of Alt DAT stock prices to changes in the prices of underlying cryptocurrencies.
• Comprehensive evaluation of the analysis results and future prospects for the Alt DAT season.

Introduction to Alt DAT

The term DAT was one of the most important keywords in the 2025 cryptocurrency market. Following the emergence of BitMine, the concept of "ETH DAT companies" was widely introduced. Many companies and investors seized this opportunity, not only to create DATs for blue-chip altcoins but also for meme coins and even tokens that had not yet been launched. They used multiple financing mechanisms and actively participated in staking and DeFi operations. From a macro perspective, these companies aim to increase access to digital currencies and take advantage of volatility, just like BTC and ETH DAT companies.

The 10/10 Crash: Is the Alt DAT Season Over?

On October 10, 2025, US President Trump announced additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods, leading to an unprecedented crash in the cryptocurrency market. On that day, the total long positions liquidated across exchanges reached US$19 billion, the largest single-day liquidation in the history of the cryptocurrency market. BTC fell by 16%, and ETH fell by 21%. Even relatively large-cap altcoins such as SOL and BNB fell by 25% and 32%, respectively.

mNAV Analysis and Price Sensitivity

mNAV was used to evaluate the ratio of a company's valuation to the value of the cryptocurrency assets it holds. For a DAT model that focuses primarily on asset management, an mNAV = 1 is considered a normal level. However, due to differences in the size of current operations, management capabilities, financing structures, and types of underlying assets, mNAV values naturally vary. Interestingly, most companies saw a slight increase in mNAV after the market crash, with a few exceptions.

Measuring stock price sensitivity to token price changes shows varied results. Market participants typically view DAT companies as leveraged instruments for their underlying tokens. However, stock reaction varies considerably, with some companies showing negative sensitivity.

Conclusions

In the cases of ETH and SOL, closing prices actually rose from October 10 to October 13. Most companies maintained or even improved their mNAV. In other ALT DAT analyses, the results came as a surprise to the market. However, the opposite is often true. Other companies indicate the opposite trend, although their corresponding tokens fell, their shares rose instead. This illustrates that the relationship between ALT DAT company valuations and underlying token prices is not as close as the market imagines.

The Future of Alt DAT

Since the crash on October 10, many believe that the DAT season is over. However, by analyzing the mNAV of ALT DAT companies, we can see that they have shown resilience that exceeded market expectations, although the reasons still need further study. In the future, these companies will need to adopt diverse strategies to survive in fierce competition. The ability of ALT DAT to withstand needs to be tested. It is not only about the rise and fall of a sector, but also a collective test of whether the cryptocurrency market can give birth to sustainable financial structures.