Bank Earnings Preview: Can JPMorgan and Goldman Extend Wall Street’s Trading Boom?

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs will release third-quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 13.
• Analysts expect both banks to report year-over-year revenue growth, supported by trading, investment banking and strong client activity.
• Combined markets revenue at the five largest US investment banks is forecast to rise approximately 17% to $38.9 billion, although growth is expected to slow from 30% in the second quarter.
• Investors will also scrutinize net interest income, credit provisions, expenses and management commentary on whether Wall Street’s trading and dealmaking boom can continue.

JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs will take center stage when the third-quarter bank earnings season begins next week, giving investors an important test of whether Wall Street’s record trading momentum can survive rising interest rates and a more uncertain economic environment.

Both banks are scheduled to report before the opening bell on Tuesday, October 13. JPMorgan plans to publish its results at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to release its report at around 7:30 a.m., with its earnings call beginning at 9:30 a.m.

The main question is whether another strong performance from trading and investment banking can offset pressure from high Treasury yields, rising funding costs and growing concern about consumer credit.

JPMorgan and Goldman Earnings Estimates

Recent analyst compilations point to another quarter of year-over-year growth, although both companies are expected to report lower earnings than in their exceptionally strong second quarters.

JPMorgan’s estimates are based on a recent compilation of 12 analysts, while Goldman’s consensus varies between data providers. The sequential declines largely reflect unusually strong second-quarter results and several one-time gains rather than an expected deterioration in the banks’ core businesses.

For Goldman, projected revenue of approximately $17.4 billion would still represent strong annual growth. The company reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $12.25 per share, providing a relatively favorable comparison for the coming report.

Wall Street’s Trading Boom Is Expected to Continue at a Slower Pace

Trading revenue will be the most closely watched component of the reports.

Analysts expect Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup to generate combined markets revenue of approximately $38.9 billion for the third quarter. That would represent growth of about 17% from $33.4 billion a year earlier.

The forecast remains impressive, but it marks a slowdown from the 30% year-over-year increase reported in the second quarter.

Equities trading is expected to remain the principal growth engine. Strong stock-market volumes, active derivatives markets and continued demand from hedge funds have supported cash equities, options and prime brokerage revenue.

Fixed-income, currency and commodities trading could deliver a more mixed performance. Rising Treasury yields, sharp moves in oil and precious metals, and renewed currency volatility created opportunities for trading desks. However, some markets experienced lower client activity than during the unusually volatile second quarter.

Precious-metals trading could provide an additional boost. Large moves in gold and silver have reportedly placed US banks on track to generate record annual revenue of approximately $5 billion from precious-metals operations.

Can JPMorgan Repeat Its Markets Outperformance?

JPMorgan enters the third-quarter report with a difficult comparison after its Corporate and Investment Bank delivered exceptional second-quarter growth.

Markets revenue increased 35% from a year earlier to $12.1 billion. Equity markets revenue surged 86%, while fixed-income markets revenue rose 6%. Investment banking fees climbed 30% as underwriting, mergers and acquisitions and financing activity accelerated.

Management has indicated that investment banking fees and markets revenue could grow at a mid-to-high-teens percentage rate in the third quarter. Meeting or exceeding that guidance would demonstrate that client activity remained resilient after the second-quarter surge.

Several JPMorgan metrics will be especially important:

• Equities trading: Investors will assess whether prime brokerage and derivatives activity remained strong enough to extend the second quarter’s 86% increase.
• Investment banking fees: Equity offerings, leveraged finance and merger advisory activity could support another quarter of growth.
• Net interest income: JPMorgan previously projected full-year net interest income of approximately $105.5 billion and about $96.5 billion excluding its markets business.
• Credit costs: Provisions and charge-offs will show whether higher borrowing costs are beginning to affect credit cards, commercial lending or other consumer loans.
• Expenses: Compensation and technology investment may rise alongside revenue, limiting the amount of trading growth that reaches the bottom line.

JPMorgan reported second-quarter net income of $21.2 billion and revenue of $58 billion. Excluding significant items, earnings were $6.14 per share rather than the reported $7.70.

The adjusted figure provides a more useful baseline for evaluating the third quarter.

Goldman Sachs Faces High Expectations After a Record Quarter

Goldman Sachs may face an even more demanding test after reporting record second-quarter results.

The bank generated net revenue of $20.34 billion and net income of $6.63 billion. Earnings reached $20.98 per share, while annualized return on common equity climbed to 23.5%.

Investment banking fees increased 55% to $3.4 billion, reflecting stronger initial public offerings, secondary share sales, leveraged finance and asset-backed transactions. Goldman also reported that its investment banking backlog had increased from the end of the first quarter.

Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue rose 32% to $4.59 billion. Equities produced record revenue, supported by derivatives, cash products and prime financing.

Investors will now look for evidence that this strength extended into the September quarter. Goldman’s results are particularly sensitive to capital markets and trading because it has less exposure to traditional consumer banking than JPMorgan.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Equities and FICC revenue compared with elevated second-quarter levels
• Advisory fees and the value of Goldman’s announced transaction backlog
• Equity and debt underwriting activity
• Management fees and investment gains within Asset and Wealth Management
• Compensation expenses following the surge in revenue
• Return on equity and tangible book-value growth

A solid result may not be enough to lift Goldman’s shares if investors have already priced in another trading and investment banking beat. Management commentary on the fourth-quarter pipeline could therefore matter as much as the reported numbers.

Investment Banking Could Become the Next Growth Engine

Trading has driven much of Wall Street’s recent earnings growth, but investment banking could determine whether the boom lasts into 2027.

Merger activity, IPOs, secondary share offerings and debt issuance all strengthened during the first half of 2026. Companies have also required substantial financing for data centers, energy infrastructure and artificial intelligence projects.

Goldman’s second-quarter investment banking fees rose 55%, while JPMorgan’s increased 30%. Goldman’s backlog reached a five-year high, suggesting that announced transactions could continue generating advisory and financing fees over future quarters.

However, the environment became more complicated during the third quarter. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, increasing financing costs and making some leveraged transactions more difficult to complete. Oil prices above $100 also revived inflation concerns, while geopolitical uncertainty created another reason for corporate executives to delay major decisions.

Industry-wide investment banking revenue is currently expected to increase approximately 5.8% from a year earlier, a much slower rate than the forecast growth in trading.

The quality of the deal pipeline will therefore be critical. Investors will want to know whether transactions have merely been delayed or whether the increase in borrowing costs has started to reduce demand permanently.

High Yields Create Opportunities and Risks

Rising interest rates can benefit banks by increasing the yield earned on loans and securities. However, the effect is not automatically positive.

Banks may need to pay more to retain deposits, placing pressure on net interest margins. Higher rates can also weaken loan demand, reduce bond and commercial-property values and increase credit losses.

JPMorgan’s diversified consumer and commercial banking operations make deposit costs, loan growth and credit provisions particularly important. Goldman is less exposed to consumer lending but more sensitive to market valuations, financing demand and asset-management performance.

Investors will also examine unrealized losses on securities portfolios and management commentary about corporate credit. Credit spreads have widened even as major stock indexes remain near record highs, suggesting that bond investors are more cautious about financial conditions than equity markets.

What Could Move JPM and GS Stocks After Earnings?

For JPMorgan, a positive report would probably require:

• Markets and investment banking growth at or above management’s mid-to-high-teens guidance
• Stable or higher net interest income
• No significant deterioration in consumer credit
• Controlled expense growth
• Constructive guidance for the fourth quarter

For Goldman Sachs, the strongest combination would be:

• Equities and FICC revenue above expectations
• Continued expansion in the investment banking backlog
• Strong asset and wealth management inflows
• Return on equity remaining comfortably above the firm’s long-term target
• Evidence that the trading slowdown is less severe than analysts expect

The downside risk is that strong headline revenue could be offset by higher compensation costs, larger credit provisions or cautious guidance. Bank stocks have recently faced their sharpest pullback since the 2023 regional banking crisis, indicating that investors are already concerned about high rates and slower capital markets activity.

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Bottom Line

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expected to report another quarter of strong trading and investment banking revenue, but the growth rate is likely to moderate from the second quarter’s exceptional pace.

JPMorgan must show that its diversified earnings base can absorb pressure from funding costs and credit risks. Goldman needs to demonstrate that record trading results and its expanding deal backlog represent more than a temporary peak.

A combined performance above expectations would support the argument that Wall Street’s trading boom remains intact. However, with Treasury yields above 5% and investor expectations already elevated, management guidance on trading activity, deal pipelines and credit conditions may ultimately determine how JPM and GS stocks react.