Bitcoin's Hype Cycle: Galaxy Digital's Perspective

Optimism surrounding Bitcoin was notably strong at the start of the year, and according to Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, the cryptocurrency might soon recapture that initial fervor. In a recent CNBC interview, Thorn stated, "Attention will come back to Bitcoin; it always does.""

Thorn emphasized that "Bitcoin was the hottest trade of the year at the start," following Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election win. However, investor focus has since diversified into sectors like AI, nuclear energy, quantum technology, and gold. "There were a lot of other places to get gains this year that impeded the allocation to Bitcoin," he explained.

The Maturation of Bitcoin Ownership

Thorn believes, "We're entering a much more mature era, where distribution from old hands to new is incredibly healthy for distributing the ownership of Bitcoin." While remaining bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, Galaxy Digital has revised its year-end price target down to $120,000 from $185,000. This adjustment still implies a roughly 17% increase from Bitcoin's current market price.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Risk Assessment

Many sectors drawing investor attention away from Bitcoin, particularly gold, are often used for comparative analysis. JPMorgan analysts recently highlighted that the increase in gold volatility during its recent rally to record highs makes the precious metal riskier, positioning Bitcoin as "more attractive to investors." This assessment is based on the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, which has fallen to 1.8, indicating that Bitcoin carries 1.8 times the risk of gold.

The Impact of AI and Quantum Computing

Concerning AI, a report on October 10 revealed that Bitcoin and Nvidia stock (NVDA) are now exhibiting a stronger correlation than at any point in the past year. This correlation has raised concerns among market observers about a potential market crash reminiscent of the dot-com bubble era of the late 1990s. Simultaneously, the debate regarding the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin continues to divide the industry.

Amit Mehra of Borderless Capital suggests that quantum computing remains a distant threat to Bitcoin. Conversely, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole, argues that the situation is more pressing and that the industry must proactively implement solutions before it is too late.


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