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Fed Policy Uncertainty Mounts Amid Government Shutdown

Wednesday Oct 22 2025 00:00

1 min

Table of Contents

1. Government Shutdown Clouds Fed's Policy Path
1.1 Missing Employment Data and Alternative Indicators
1.2 Inflation vs. Growth: The Fed's Dilemma
1.3 Officials Focus on the Labor Market
1.4 Difficulty Tracking Inflation
1.5 Diverging Views and the Need for Reliable Data

Government Shutdown Clouds Fed's Policy Path

The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of key economic data, casting a shadow over the Federal Reserve's ability to accurately assess the economic landscape. As the next policy meeting approaches, policymakers are grappling with disagreements over which risks deserve immediate attention.

Missing Employment Data and Alternative Indicators

While official employment figures have been unavailable since October 1 due to the shutdown, existing information suggests that job growth remains sluggish. Surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve indicate a potential softening in consumer spending, and recent business confidence surveys have also shown a decline.

Inflation vs. Growth: The Fed's Dilemma

Businesses are warning of potential future price increases, while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. However, overall economic growth estimates have been revised upward as the scale of corporate investment becomes clearer. Economists are also pointing to new tax cuts potentially boosting the economy next year.

Officials Focus on the Labor Market

Financial markets expect the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% at its policy meeting on October 28-29. However, officials and economists alike acknowledge that they are making decisions under a cloud of uncertainty.

Difficulty Tracking Inflation

While Fed officials have alternative channels for monitoring employment beyond the Labor Department, the alternative data available for tracking inflation is far more limited. Government reports help shape the views of decision-makers.

Diverging Views and the Need for Reliable Data

Fed officials hold diverging views on the economy, but they all rely on the latest government data to validate or revise their judgments. As the shutdown continues, the importance of access to accurate economic data for informed monetary policy decisions only grows.

Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. 

Written by:

Ava Grace

Fed Policy Uncertainty Mounts Amid Government Shutdown

Government Shutdown Clouds Fed's Policy Path

Missing Employment Data and Alternative Indicators

Inflation vs. Growth: The Fed's Dilemma

Officials Focus on the Labor Market

Difficulty Tracking Inflation

Diverging Views and the Need for Reliable Data

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