Iran Conflict and Israeli Elections: A Battle for Votes and the Future

A Contest for Power: Iran as an Electoral Tool in Israel

Even by the standards of wartime Israeli politics, these are stark demands: Israel should destroy all Iranian oil fields and level the energy infrastructure of Kharg Island, Tehran's main oil export hub. Yet, these calls are not emanating from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his far-right nationalist allies, but from Yair Lapid. The silver-haired former prime minister and ex-television host leads the centrist "Yesh Atid" party, drawing significant support from liberal strongholds like Tel Aviv.

Lapid's stance reflects a core Israeli political dynamic: for all Zionist governing and opposition parties, the disagreement is not over whether to confront Iran, but rather who can prosecute this war more forcefully than Netanyahu. In Israel's fragmented political arena, an offensive against Iran garners public support on nearly any issue, even after two and a half years of multi-front conflict have disrupted the daily lives of millions of Israelis.

Widespread Public Support vs. Limited Electoral Impact

Despite staunch opposition from Arab Israeli parties against a war with Iran, polls indicate that over 90% of Jewish Israelis support initiating military action, and all factions of the Zionist opposition are united in this stance. "There has never been an ideological disagreement in Israel on how to deal with Iran," says Yohanan Plesner, director of the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. "Iran's goal is to destroy the state of Israel and attempt to acquire nuclear weapons," making support for action against it comprehensive.

Despite the war's popularity, it has not yet influenced the polls for Israel's parliamentary elections, due by October. Most surveys still suggest that Netanyahu's far-right bloc will fall short of a majority by at least five seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a drop of about ten seats from the 64 they won in 2022.

Netanyahu's War Strategy for the Election

However, both Netanyahu's allies and opponents anticipate he will make striking Israel's arch-nemesis and potentially eliminating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the centerpiece of his campaign. The catastrophic missteps of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack severely damaged his security credentials, which he is attempting to salvage. "Of course, everything could change if the war's outcome is not as expected, or if the fighting drags on," says a senior Likud official. "But if he can pass the budget by the end of this month, he will hold all the cards... If the war situation is favorable, he might call for elections in late June or early July."

Opposition politicians have been quick to point out that a 12-day war with Iran last year ultimately did not improve Netanyahu's bloc's standing: while the Likud saw a brief poll bump, its coalition partners' support declined, and the bloc as a whole remained far from a majority. "After World War II, the British kicked Churchill out. Elections are about the future, about what happens next, not the past," says one opposition official. "Even if this war goes well, I'm not convinced it will secure his victory."

Subtle Criticisms and Political Maneuvering

Even so, Israeli opposition parties, while continuing to support the war itself, have begun to find angles to criticize Netanyahu's command of it. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing "The Democrats" party, argues that military gains are meaningless if they cannot be translated into diplomatic victories. Former right-wing prime minister Naftali Bennett, expected to be one of Netanyahu's main rivals, is criticizing the government for continuing to allocate funds to Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies while cutting budgets for northern municipalities hit by Hezbollah rockets.

Like Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, advocates for a more forceful Israeli military response. "Everyone is basically trying to find a clever position to sound tougher than Netanyahu on the war, or to accuse him of failing to deliver, of not fulfilling all his promises," says Dalia Scheindlin, a pollster and political analyst. "Either they genuinely believe it, or they believe it's the only acceptable position for the Israeli public."

An Uncertain Future: War, Economy, and Domestic Politics

Analysts suggest the war's impact on the upcoming elections will ultimately depend on how it concludes. Even if Israel succeeds in degrading Iran's leadership and destroying its ballistic missile capacity, a protracted war that does not overthrow the Iranian regime will be difficult for Netanyahu to package as a decisive victory. A rising Israeli casualty count could also shift public opinion on the conflict.

Plesner predicts that the deep divisions over national identity that dominated Israeli politics before the war will remain the core issue. He notes that Netanyahu will attempt to portray the opposition as beholden to Israel's Arab minority, while the opposition may attack his failure to end the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service—an increasingly contentious issue as the war drags on. "Both sides will mobilize their base by warning of supposed domestic dangers," he says. "So, while in recent years we've primarily dealt with external security threats, I still believe that domestic issues will determine the election."

However, Plesner adds that Israeli politics is intensely close—the last election was decided by about 30,000 votes—meaning the war's impact could still prove decisive. "Elections are won and lost on the margins," he says. "So even if the war's outcome merely shifts the vote share by a few percentage points between the sides, it could be highly significant."