SpaceX Stock Jumps 9.7% on Starlink and AI Push; LUNR Gains Ahead of Earnings

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX stock surged 9.65% to $146.15 on Wednesday, supported by another successful Starlink launch, fresh AI developments and short covering.
• Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target, while Morningstar’s $62 fair-value estimate implied approximately 58% downside.
• Intuitive Machines shares gained 2.85% to $16.95 before the company’s second-quarter earnings report on Thursday.

SpaceX Stock Reclaims Its IPO Price as Growth Optimism Returns

SpaceX shares delivered one of their strongest sessions since the company’s June market debut, jumping 9.65% to close at $146.15 on Wednesday, August 12. The advance took the stock back above its $135 initial public offering price and extended a sharp recovery from its early-August low.

The rally reflected several overlapping catalysts rather than a single announcement. Another successful Starlink satellite launch reinforced confidence in SpaceX’s operating execution, while new artificial intelligence developments strengthened expectations that the company could build a substantial business beyond launch services and satellite connectivity.

Short covering also appeared to magnify the move. Bearish positioning had increased after SpaceX’s first public earnings report and the expiration of a major lock-up period. As the feared wave of insider selling failed to emerge immediately, traders who had bet against the stock were forced to reassess their positions.

SpaceX stock has now climbed approximately 39% from its August 3 low, although it remains below the $201.80 peak reached shortly after the IPO. The wide trading range demonstrates how quickly sentiment can change around newly listed, high-growth companies.

Also read SpaceX Stock Forecast 2027, 2031 and 2036: What the Lockup Schedule Means for SPCX Shares

Fresh Starlink Launch Reinforces SpaceX’s Core Business

SpaceX launched 24 additional Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The Falcon 9 mission marked the company’s 51st West Coast launch of 2026, maintaining the rapid deployment schedule supporting the expansion of the Starlink network. Mission coverage confirmed the successful launch and satellite deployment.

Starlink remains central to the SpaceX investment case because it provides recurring subscription revenue, unlike the more project-based nature of traditional rocket launches. The satellite connectivity division generated approximately $4.29 billion in second-quarter revenue and represented roughly 70% of total company sales.

That revenue is helping SpaceX finance capital-intensive projects, including Starship development and its growing AI infrastructure operations. The company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up approximately 92% from a year earlier, although heavy research, development and infrastructure spending kept operating profitability under pressure.

The latest launch therefore carried more significance than simply adding another 24 satellites. It demonstrated the operational cadence required to expand coverage, increase network capacity and support Starlink’s fixed broadband and direct-to-cell services.

Morgan Stanley Maintains $300 SpaceX Price Target

Artificial intelligence has become another major driver of SpaceX stock. Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $300 price target, more than double Wednesday’s closing price. The firm also maintained a $600 bull-case valuation. Morgan Stanley’s valuation assigns $127 per share to SpaceX’s space and connectivity operations, while only $12 per share is currently attributed to its consumer and enterprise AI activities.

The bank believes the market may be focusing too narrowly on SpaceX’s AI computing and data-centre leasing arrangements with companies such as Alphabet and Anthropic. Its broader thesis includes SpaceX’s computing infrastructure, connectivity network, real-time data, Grok models and planned acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor.

SpaceX also released Grok 4.6, an updated model designed for complex tasks and long-running AI agents. The company is expected to continue rolling out new models during the remainder of 2026, giving investors additional performance data with which to evaluate its position in the competitive AI market.

The developing AI strategy creates potential diversification but also introduces substantial execution risk. SpaceX spent approximately $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure during the latest quarter, part of total capital expenditure of $18.4 billion. Returns from those investments will depend on customer demand, computing utilisation, model performance and the company’s ability to compete with established cloud and AI providers.

Morningstar Warns SpaceX Could Face 58% Downside

Not every valuation view is bullish. Morningstar maintained a $62 fair-value estimate for SpaceX, approximately 58% below Wednesday’s closing price, and assigned the shares a one-star rating.

Morningstar’s valuation reflects more conservative expectations for Starship, orbital computing infrastructure and the long-term commercial value of SpaceX’s AI operations. It also argues that recent price movements may be influenced more by temporary share-supply dynamics and short covering than by changes in the company’s underlying value.

The contrast between Morgan Stanley’s $300 target and Morningstar’s $62 estimate illustrates the unusually wide range of possible outcomes being assigned to SpaceX. Small changes to assumptions about AI revenue, Starlink margins, Starship commercialisation or future capital spending can produce dramatically different valuations.

Share supply remains another short-term risk. More than 900 million restricted shares recently became eligible for trading, while another 319 million shares could be unlocked on August 20. Further lock-up expirations are expected later in the year, potentially increasing volatility if early shareholders decide to reduce their holdings.

Intuitive Machines Gains Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Intuitive Machines joined the space-sector rally, gaining 2.85% to close at $16.95. The lunar infrastructure company is scheduled to release its second-quarter results before the US market opens on Thursday, August 13, followed by an earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The earnings schedule was confirmed by Intuitive Machines.

Expectations are elevated after the company reported record first-quarter revenue of $186.7 million, nearly three times the year-earlier figure. Adjusted EBITDA reached a positive $2.7 million, while contracted backlog climbed to approximately $1.1 billion.

Management previously projected full-year 2026 revenue of between $900 million and $1 billion alongside positive adjusted EBITDA. Investors will therefore focus on whether the company maintains that guidance and whether recent contract wins are converting into revenue at the expected pace.

Other areas to watch include the integration of Lanteris Space Systems, progress on NASA-backed lunar missions, defence contracts and the recently completed acquisition of Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT. These operations are intended to broaden Intuitive Machines beyond lunar landers into satellite manufacturing, mission services and space-to-ground communications.

Conclusion

Space and satellite stocks returned to focus as investors responded to launch execution, AI investment and upcoming earnings. SpaceX’s 9.65% rally reflected confidence in Starlink and the company’s expanding AI ambitions, but the gap between analyst valuations shows that expectations remain highly contested.

Intuitive Machines’ 2.85% gain placed attention on its second-quarter results, where revenue growth, backlog conversion and full-year guidance are likely to determine the next move in LUNR stock. Both companies offer exposure to the expanding commercial space economy, but high capital requirements, execution uncertainty and elevated valuations could keep share-price volatility unusually high.