US Government Shutdown Threatens October Inflation Data Release

Article Summary:

• White House warns government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data.
• Lack of funding hinders data collectors from gathering essential economic information.
• Democrats block temporary spending bills due to disagreements over healthcare subsidies.
• September's CPI report was already delayed due to the shutdown.
• Absence of inflation data could complicate the Federal Reserve's December policy decisions.

The White House stated on Friday that the US government may not be able to release October's inflation data due to the ongoing government shutdown. This warning comes amid growing concerns about the shutdown's impact on the US economy.

In a statement posted on social media, the White House indicated that the funding lapse has prevented researchers from conducting fieldwork necessary for gathering economic data. As a result, "we may lose access to vital data." The statement added that this would be "the first time in history" that this information was not released.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wrote in a post, "Democrats' choice to keep the government shut down could lead to the October inflation report not being released, which would create chaos for businesses, markets, families, and the Federal Reserve."

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The US government shutdown has entered its fourth week, with Senate Democrats repeatedly blocking temporary spending bills, stating they cannot support such measures without provisions to extend health insurance subsidies.

The funding shortage has prompted President Trump's administration to furlough a large number of federal employees, including staff at key agencies.

Earlier released data showed that the US CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in September, higher than August's 2.9% increase. The index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, below market expectations. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month.

Due to the disruption of economic data work caused by the US government shutdown, this CPI report was released more than a week later than expected, due to its importance in determining the cost-of-living increase for Social Security payments, but employment data remains pending.

Institutional analysts pointed out that it should be noted that if the United States is to publish October's inflation data, staff at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics must collect price information during October, but in reality, they were hardly on the job at that time.

On the other hand, economists pointed out that releasing October employment data may be relatively easier - after all, companies clearly know which employees they have hired or laid off, and have relevant verifiable records. But if no price survey was conducted in October at all, it will be extremely difficult to reconstruct a CPI report.

Analysts believe that this statement from the White House truly reminds the market: if key data is lacking, the Federal Reserve's December policy decisions will become extremely complicated. Policymakers may still have confidence in their assessment of the employment situation, but their grasp of the direction of inflation is clearly less certain.