US Extends Ceasefire with Iran Amidst Internal Divisions Hindering Talks

Renewed Diplomatic Efforts as Ceasefire Deadline Extended

This move comes amidst indications of "good news" regarding a potential second round of talks between the US and Iran, which could emerge as early as Friday. Pakistani sources have indicated that active mediation efforts have revived the possibility of further peace talks within the "next 24 to 72 hours." When queried about this potential breakthrough, President Trump responded via text message: "Possible!"

The Reality of Iran's Stance and Internal Complexities

Previously, President Trump had stated his intention to extend the ceasefire agreement until Iran's leadership could present a "unified proposal." In the hours following this statement, Pakistan continued its diplomatic outreach to Iran. A Pakistani official noted that the proposed timeline was based on an assessment of ongoing work.

Structural Divisions Hampering Negotiation Progress

"We see an absolute split within Iran between the negotiators and the military, and neither side can reach the supreme leader, who is unresponsive," stated one US official.

The Intricate Backstory: Fractures in Iran's Command Structure

In the subsequent days, Iran provided no substantive response to the latest US proposal and refused to commit to a second round of talks in Pakistan. A portion of these divisions stems from Israel's assassination of former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani in March. Larijani had the authority and political weight to maintain unity within Iran's decision-making system. His successor, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, tasked with coordinating between the IRGC, civilian leadership, and the supreme leader, is currently performing poorly, according to a US official.

Why is the Second Round of US-Iran Talks "Struggling to Materialize"?

On Monday evening, it appeared that the Iranian side had allowed Pakistani mediators to facilitate the talks. But by Tuesday morning, this signal vanished, replaced by a demand: the US must first lift the maritime blockade. Air Force Two remained on the tarmac at Andrews Joint Base for hours, ready for departure, only to be canceled and returned. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, originally scheduled to fly from Miami to Islamabad, also ended up returning to Washington on a government plane.

On Tuesday afternoon, Trump convened a closed-door meeting with his national security team: Vance, Witkoff, Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, and other senior officials. Prior to the meeting, some of Trump's advisors were unsure of his inclination: launch massive strikes on Iran's energy facilities, or give diplomacy more time? He ultimately chose the latter.

"In the last few days, the extent of the internal Iranian division became clear, and the question became: does going to Islamabad make sense in this situation?" a US official said. "So the decision was to give diplomacy a little more time."

Trump's Urgency to Exit While Retaining Military Options

"It looks like Trump really doesn't want to use force anymore and has made up his mind to end the war," a US source close to Trump stated.

Axios reported that if Pakistani mediators fail to secure Iran's participation within Trump's deadline, military options will be back on the table. According to regional sources familiar with the mediation process and Israeli sources privy to the discussions, US officials and Pakistani mediators are awaiting Mojtaba Khamenei to break his silence in the next day or two, issuing clear instructions to negotiators to return to the negotiating table.

The extended ceasefire has cost Trump some leverage. However, he believes the ongoing maritime blockade is sufficient to compensate for this. He claimed that the Iranians are "desperate for cash" and cannot even pay the salaries of their military and police. On Tuesday evening, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, making it clear that the maritime blockade is his primary leverage. "Iran doesn't want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open and make $500 million a day," he wrote. "They just say they want to close it, only because I have it completely blocked (closed)! So they just want to save face."

Trump added, "Four days ago, someone came to me and said, 'Sir, Iran wants the Strait open immediately.' But if we do that, we'll never have a deal with Iran unless we completely destroy them (including their leadership)!"