US Links Iran Deal to Israel Normalization: Regional Complexities and Mixed Reactions

Introduction: Trump's New Stipulation Adds a Layer of Complexity to Iran Negotiations

In a notable development that could complicate the trajectory of Iran conflict negotiations, former US President Donald Trump has introduced an additional condition. This stipulation requires Arab nations, alongside Pakistan and Turkey, to consider establishing diplomatic ties with Israel as an 'obligation,' linking their response to the potential agreement with the 'Abraham Accords' he championed during his first term. This demand, communicated during calls with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey, aims to accelerate regional normalization but has, in turn, elicited mixed and complex reactions, injecting further uncertainty into already challenging negotiations.

Push for the 'Abraham Accords': Trump's Vision and Its Repercussions

Trump explicitly emphasized during his calls with the leaders concerned the 'obligation' for these countries to join the 'Abraham Accords.' These accords marked significant diplomatic achievements during his presidency, establishing formal diplomatic and economic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and Israel. He further elaborated via social media, calling for an 'immediate signing' by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and urging 'all other countries to follow suit.'

Trump has gone further, making the finalization of any agreement with Iran contingent on the acceptance of his demand by these nations. During a cabinet meeting, he reiterated his stance, noting that his envoys, such as David Friedman and Jared Kushner, were engaged in discussions with regional countries regarding normalization. He described this move as an 'extremely significant sign,' asserting that 'those countries owe us' this gesture.

Cold Regional Reactions: Escalating Security and Political Concerns

These demands have not been well-received in the Gulf states, provoking clear opposition. Many analysts believe that relations between the US and its regional allies have already been impacted by the nature of the conflict itself, and that additional pressure will only exacerbate distrust. Jon Alterman, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), points out that local countries do not feel they 'owe the US anything,' but rather feel disappointed by Washington's policies. He stated, 'While they are careful not to say it explicitly, they feel that the US is very motivated to protect Israel but not very motivated to protect them.'

Security concerns are particularly prominent. During the conflict, Iran demonstrated its capability to launch large-scale drone and missile attacks against Gulf targets. The UAE, for instance, experienced over 2,800 sorties, a scale exceeding even attacks directed at Israel. This has raised concerns among some nations that normalizing relations with Israel could further provoke Iran into retaliatory actions.

Firas Maksad, Managing Director for MENA at Eurasia Group, describes Trump's demand as compelling these countries to 'take on additional political risk' under current circumstances. He commented, 'Trump is pressuring countries that have suffered disruptive attacks from Iran to pay a political price now by provoking the Iranian regime, which has become emboldened by this conflict and threatens to control their economic lifeline – the Strait of Hormuz – long-term.'

He emphasized that all six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have, in the context of the conflict, faced strikes targeting US military bases, airports, and civilian facilities.

In Maksad's view, the proposal is 'practically unworkable': 'This simply won't fly for the GCC. In the current climate, nobody is going to move in that direction.'

The Palestinian Issue and Domestic Public Opinion: Key Obstacles

Several countries have explicitly or implicitly signaled their rejection. Saudi Arabia has consistently maintained that any normalization of relations with Israel would only be considered 'contingent on a clear path towards Palestinian statehood.' Qatar, meanwhile, stated that its current focus regarding engagement with Israel remains on 'advancing a solution to the Palestinian issue, not joining related agreements.' Kuwait, which has long resisted normalizing ties with Israel, has not responded to related statements.

Public sentiment also constitutes a significant constraint. Since Israel's military operations in Gaza began, negative perceptions of Israel within Arab society have deepened, with many viewing it as a destabilizing force in the region. This sentiment increases internal pressure on governments when pursuing diplomatic shifts.

In fact, although some Arab states previously viewed Israel as a potential partner for balancing Iranian influence and engaged in low-key security cooperation, the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflict altered this trend. Israel's military actions in Gaza and the ensuing confrontation with Iran have significantly worsened the regional political climate.

Since 2024, while countries like Saudi Arabia have cooperated with the US and Israel on defense levels – sharing intelligence, opening airspace, and participating in intercepting drones and missiles – this cooperation has not translated into overt improvements in political relations. Conversely, as the situation in Gaza has deteriorated and regional security risks have escalated, most countries' political stance towards Israel has become more cautious, even negative.

Complicating Negotiation Prospects

Trump's additional condition is seen as potentially derailing the already complex US-Iran negotiation process. Although he announced a ceasefire on April 7, Iran has yet to accept core demands, including relinquishing its nuclear capabilities and surrendering its existing enriched uranium stockpile.

In an earlier interview, Trump described Iranian negotiators as 'excellent negotiators' and stated he was 'not in a hurry,' adding, 'When you're in a hurry, you don't get a good deal.'

Historically, the US leveraged regional trust after the 1991 Gulf War to advance the Middle East peace process, facilitating direct Arab-Israeli dialogue at the Madrid Conference and laying the groundwork for agreements between Israel and Jordan, and the Palestine Liberation Organization. However, the current environment is markedly different. Declining trust among regional nations in US policies makes replicating such a path difficult.

Michael Ratney, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Consul General in Jerusalem, believes it is unlikely that Gulf states and Pakistan will change their positions under pressure. He commented, 'They can only grit their teeth for now and try their best to maintain this relationship without breaking it. They will all wait for the dust to settle before doing anything else that might be controversial or destabilizing.'