Key Takeaways:
- Intense visits by senior US officials to Israel to push for ceasefire compliance.
- Tensions between Israel and the US over Israeli military actions in Gaza.
- Significant challenges in implementing the second phase of the agreement, including deploying an international force and forming a Palestinian administration.
- Concerns over the US's ability to enforce the agreement long-term.
Main Article:
This week witnessed a flurry of visits by high-ranking US officials to Israel, placing Prime Minister Netanyahu in an awkward position. Some journalists even questioned Netanyahu, in the presence of US Vice President Harris, whether his country had become a US vassal state. Netanyahu retorted, "That's nonsense. We are partners, allies."
However, the exchange highlighted the complex sentiments in Israel at present: Washington now calls the shots, as the Biden administration intensifies pressure on Netanyahu's far-right government to abide by the fragile Gaza ceasefire agreement, one that Israel was initially forced to accept grudgingly.
The US launched an unusually intense round of diplomatic efforts this week, turning its attention to the critical second phase of the 20-point Gaza ceasefire plan. US envoy Witkov and Biden's son-in-law Kushner, both key architects of the agreement, have already visited, while Secretary of State Blinken arrived hours after Harris departed on Thursday.
"It's the US that's running the show now. The US realizes they can't just walk away from the Biden plan and leave Israel to figure it out," said a person familiar with the Israeli government's thinking.
A diplomat revealed that Biden made it clear to Netanyahu that he was annoyed by Israel's actions last weekend.
At the time, after Hamas killed two Israeli soldiers, Israel launched a series of airstrikes and suspended aid shipments, the most severe test of the ceasefire agreement to date.
"Biden was very unhappy with the Israelis because Israel was trying to find a way out of this agreement," the diplomat said. "Biden told them to 'knock it off' and made it clear the agreement has to continue."
Another person familiar with the matter said it was US pressure on Netanyahu that led him to reverse his decision to suspend aid to Gaza.
Biden also tried to put pressure on Hamas, threatening to "eradicate" them if the group violated the agreement. But the US administration leveled unusually harsh criticism at Israeli lawmakers (including members of the ruling coalition) who voted on Wednesday in support of annexing parts of the occupied West Bank.
Harris, who was meeting with Netanyahu that day, called the vote a "dumb political stunt" and a personal "insult" to him. Harris also used his two-day trip to try to quell Israeli anger over Hamas's slow return of hostage remains.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas kidnapped 28 hostages. While 20 surviving hostages were released 10 days ago shortly after the ceasefire agreement went into effect, only 15 bodies have been returned to date. "There are some hostages, nobody even knows where they are," Harris said. "It's just a reminder that we need a little more patience."
During their visit this week, Harris, Witkov and Kushner launched a US-led military-civilian coordination center in Israel with 200 American soldiers to oversee the ceasefire and coordinate next steps in the agreement. This is the clearest indication yet that the agreement is moving toward the second phase.
The second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement calls for deploying an international stabilization force (ISF) to oversee security in Gaza and forming a Palestinian technocratic committee to manage the area's daily operations, which will be overseen by the Biden-led "Peace Committee."
White House spokeswoman Kelly said the administration is "working closely with Israel to implement" the Biden plan, adding that the President sent his "top team" to Israel, "reflecting his commitment to getting this difficult job done to achieve something unprecedented in Gaza."
But diplomats cautioned that the US, Israel, Hamas and Arab powers remained at odds over the most contentious issues such as the ISF, Gaza's governance structure and Hamas's disarmament. A person familiar with the Israeli government's thinking said Witkov told Netanyahu that the next 30 months are critical because the situation is "still very preliminary and fragile."
Diplomats said Hamas has hinted that it might agree to partial disarmament, but with myriad conditions—including which weapons they would give up, guarantees that Israel would not attack them and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
The most pressing issue is the deployment of the ISF, which is seen as critical to maintaining the ceasefire and creating an environment for Hamas to relinquish control of Gaza, but there is no agreement on its mandate, size or which countries would send troops.
Another diplomat said the US has agreed that the ISF should have a UN mandate, which is also what Arab and Muslim nations are demanding, and these nations are expected to provide most of the troops, with the US itself not deploying ground troops in Gaza.
The US, Britain and France are drafting a draft resolution at the UN Security Council, diplomats said, "It needs a lead country to lead this thing and really make it work, but that country has not been determined, everyone is looking to the Egyptians to lead this force, but the Egyptian side has not yet agreed, and they have made a large number of conditions, if any sending country feels that they may have to engage with Hamas, they will not send troops."
Blinken acknowledged the challenges as he headed to Israel, saying "There is still a lot of work to do." The first diplomat also mentioned that Israel wants to have veto power over the composition of the ISF and the Palestinian committee. Despite US efforts to push the plan forward, concerns remain that the Biden administration will still allow the Netanyahu government to test the limits of the agreement.
One of the diplomats pointed out that dozens of Gazans have been killed by Israel since the ceasefire went into effect and that Israel is not allowing enough humanitarian aid into the devastated area. "This is Biden's signature diplomatic achievement," the diplomat said. "But I think they will give Israel some leeway."
When asked why so many US officials were gathering in Israel, Harris said, "This requires oversight and it requires a lot of work." He went on to say, "This oversight is not like watching a toddler learn to walk. We don't want a vassal state, and Israel is not. What we want is a partnership."
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