Bitcoin's November Performance: Bucking the Trend? Bitfinex Analysts Weigh In

Wednesday Nov 26 2025 06:00

Duration

2 min

  1. 1. Bitcoin's November Performance: Bucking the Trend?

  2. 1.1 Bitfinex Analysis: A Future Outlook

  3. 1.2 Whale Interest Slowly Increasing

  4. 1.3 Support and Resistance Levels

  5. 1.4 Buyers Above $106,000 Capitulating

  6. 1.5 Potential Paths Forward

Bitcoin's November Performance: Bucking the Trend?

Contrary to historical expectations, this November appears to be unfavorable for Bitcoin. Historically, November has been Bitcoin's strongest month, posting an average return of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass. However, October closed down 3.69%, despite typically delivering average gains of around 19.92%. This underwhelming performance has raised questions about whether seasonal trends are still worth considering.

Bitfinex Analysis: A Future Outlook

In a Tuesday report, Bitfinex analysts stated that "Bitcoin is on track to close November in the red," as the asset is currently trading 20.60% below its price at the beginning of the month. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,305, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitfinex analysts added, "In the current quarter, historic seasonality metrics have failed to hold up."

Whale Interest Slowly Increasing

Data suggests that Bitcoin whale interest is slowly increasing again. The mixed signals have caught traders off guard. For example, Merlin The Trader mentioned earlier this month that weak sentiment following October's decline could set the asset up for a stronger November. He wrote in an X post on Nov. 3, "Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. The perfect setup."

Support and Resistance Levels

Bitfinex analysts noted that this is only the third occasion since early 2024 when Bitcoin's price has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holders' cost-basis model. Short-term Bitcoin holders, those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average realized price of $86,787, according to CoinGlass.

Buyers Above $106,000 Capitulating

Bitfinex analysts attributed the recent price fall to market froth, noting that buying activity around the $106,000 and $118,000 levels was significantly heavier than usual. They said as a result, a deeper layer of holders is now "capitulating at a loss."

Potential Paths Forward

Bitfinex analysts stated that the market now faces two possible paths: either a "meaningful resurgence in demand," or the market will be forced into a "longer and potentially deeper accumulation phase." However, some signs suggest that demand among Bitcoin whales is slowly increasing again. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Tuesday that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen by +0.47% (91 wallets) since Nov. 11. Regardless of whether seasonal trends still hold, December has historically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with average returns of 4.75% since 2013.

Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. 

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Written by:

Liam James

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