Oil Price Today: Brent Holds Above $90 as Prolonged Iran Conflict Threatens Supply

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude held near $91 per barrel after renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran revived fears of prolonged Middle Eastern supply disruptions.
• WTI crude climbed above $86 as traders reassessed the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The latest escalation follows a US strike on Iranian military installations on Larak Island and retaliatory Iranian attacks targeting US assets in Jordan and the UAE.
• OPEC+ is raising production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, but restricted Gulf shipping may prevent all of those barrels from reaching the global market.
• Higher oil prices are adding to inflation concerns, pushing government bond yields higher and strengthening expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.

The oil price today remained elevated as Brent crude held above $90 per barrel, extending its advance after renewed fighting between the United States and Iran raised concerns that disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies could last for months.

Brent, the international oil benchmark, traded around $91.04 per barrel on Tuesday, rising approximately 0.6%. US West Texas Intermediate advanced nearly 0.9% to around $86.52 per barrel.

Oil prices initially jumped sharply after the first direct exchange of attacks between Washington and Tehran in approximately one month. Although part of the increase was subsequently reversed, Brent’s ability to remain above $90 indicates that traders continue to assign a substantial geopolitical premium to crude.

Why Is the Oil Price Rising Today?

The latest rally began after US forces attacked two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington said the operation responded to intelligence suggesting that Iranian forces were preparing to place additional mines in the waterway. Iran subsequently launched missiles toward US military assets in Jordan and reportedly attempted a drone attack targeting the UAE.

The confrontation ended a period of relative calm that had supported hopes of a gradual recovery in Gulf oil exports. Those expectations are now being reconsidered as US and Iranian officials prepare for the possibility of a longer conflict.

ANZ analysts said both sides appeared to be preparing for hostilities to continue for months as diplomatic negotiations remained deadlocked. Front-month WTI subsequently rose to $86.35 during early trading, according to The Wall Street Journal.

President Donald Trump has also threatened stronger military action if Iran continues attacking US forces, increasing the risk that future operations could extend to energy infrastructure or other strategically important targets.

Strait of Hormuz Remains the Biggest Supply Risk

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil market’s outlook because it normally handles approximately one-fifth of internationally traded crude and petroleum products.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and other Gulf producers depend heavily on the narrow waterway to reach customers in Asia and other international markets. Even when production facilities remain operational, unsafe shipping conditions can prevent available barrels from being exported.

Some oil continues to move through the strait, including shipments using alternative routing practices, ship-to-ship transfers and vessels operating without standard tracking signals. However, overall traffic remains substantially below the level seen before the conflict.

Maritime analytics firm Kpler recently revised its estimated flow through Hormuz to approximately 8.6 million barrels per day after identifying previously unrecorded “dark transits.” Although higher than earlier estimates, that figure remains below half the roughly 20 million barrels per day transported through the waterway before the war.

The risk is not limited to a complete closure. Mines, drone attacks, vessel seizures and higher insurance costs can delay shipments and force refiners to seek supplies from more distant producers.

A supertanker reportedly caught fire after encountering mines in the strait, although accounts of the incident have differed. The uncertainty surrounding individual vessel movements underscores the difficulty of assessing the true amount of crude reaching the international market.

Global Oil Inventories Offer a Limited Cushion

The latest confrontation comes after several months of restricted Middle Eastern production and exports.

In June, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that regional producers had reduced output by more than 11 million barrels per day because of the conflict and shipping disruptions. The agency said the resulting inventory withdrawals had pushed commercial oil stocks across OECD economies to their lowest level since 2003.

The EIA forecast that Brent would average $95 per barrel in 2026, although weaker global consumption could limit the scale of additional price increases. High fuel costs, reduced availability and government conservation measures were expected to lower global oil demand by around 1.1 million barrels per day from 2025 levels. The EIA’s June oil outlook therefore highlighted two opposing forces: severe supply constraints and demand destruction caused by higher prices.

This balance helps explain why Brent has held above $90 without immediately returning to the $102 level reached during July’s most intense escalation.

If Gulf shipments deteriorate further, limited inventories could amplify the price response. If exports remain stable and weaker demand becomes more visible, Brent may struggle to extend its rally.

Can OPEC+ Prevent Another Oil Price Spike?

Seven OPEC+ members are scheduled to increase their combined production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in September.

The participating countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. The increase is the sixth consecutive monthly adjustment and completes the planned restoration of 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023.

Separate supply restrictions of around 2 million barrels per day are expected to remain in place through the end of 2026. The group is scheduled to meet again on September 6 to consider its production policy for October.

The additional September supply could moderate oil prices if producers can raise output and deliver the barrels to customers. However, higher production targets have limited immediate value when export routes remain constrained.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq are among the producers most exposed to shipping conditions in the Persian Gulf. Russia also continues to face disruptions caused by attacks on refining and energy infrastructure. OPEC+ may therefore add less effective supply than the headline increase suggests.

Higher Oil Prices Revive Inflation Concerns

The oil rally is affecting financial markets beyond the energy sector.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.78%, its highest level since January 2025, as traders considered whether higher fuel and transport costs would keep inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Market expectations for a September interest-rate increase have risen to roughly two-thirds following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech and the renewed increase in energy prices.

Crude oil directly affects headline inflation through gasoline, diesel, heating and transportation costs. It can also influence underlying inflation when businesses pass higher logistics, electricity and production expenses on to consumers.

The Fed must balance these price pressures against signs that the US labor market is weakening. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, while the August employment report will be released on September 4.

A strong jobs report combined with Brent above $90 could strengthen the case for a rate increase at the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. Weak employment data may make policymakers more cautious, even if the energy shock keeps inflation elevated.

Energy Stocks Rise as Other Sectors Face Pressure

Higher crude prices supported major energy companies during the latest equity-market session. Exxon Mobil gained approximately 2.7%, while Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum also advanced.

Oil producers can benefit from higher realized prices, particularly when their operations are located outside the affected region. US shale companies and producers in Latin America may also attract greater demand as refiners look for alternatives to Gulf supplies.

Airlines, transportation companies and manufacturers face the opposite pressure because fuel represents a significant operating expense. Persistently elevated crude prices could also reduce household disposable income by raising gasoline and utility bills.

The broader S&P 500 declined 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% as the combination of geopolitical risk, higher bond yields and renewed inflation concerns weakened market sentiment.

Brent Crude Levels to Watch

The $90 level has become the first important reference point for Brent crude.

Holding above $90 would indicate that traders continue to price in a prolonged supply disruption. A sustained advance could bring the $92 to $95 region into focus, followed by July’s peak near $102 if Gulf exports deteriorate significantly.

A decline below $90 could expose approximately $88, followed by the $85 area. Such a retreat would probably require evidence that shipping volumes are recovering, military escalation is being contained or diplomatic negotiations are restarting.

The main oil-market scenarios are:

• Further military escalation: Attacks involving oil terminals, tankers or regional infrastructure could push Brent toward $95 and potentially $100.
• Prolonged but contained conflict: Brent may remain between approximately $88 and $95 as reduced exports are offset by weaker demand and alternative supplies.
• Diplomatic breakthrough: Improved shipping security or a new US-Iran agreement could remove part of the geopolitical premium and push Brent back toward the mid-$80s.

Oil traders will now monitor military developments around Larak and Kharg islands, verified tanker movements through Hormuz, the September 6 OPEC+ meeting and upcoming US crude-inventory data.

Brent’s move above $90 is no longer driven solely by the initial shock of renewed attacks. Its ability to remain there reflects a broader concern that restricted Gulf exports, depleted inventories and diplomatic deadlock could keep the global oil market tight for an extended period.

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