Oil Price Today Nears $96 as Hormuz Disruptions Drive Brent Toward a 9% Weekly Gain

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude traded near $96 per barrel on Friday and headed for a weekly gain of approximately 9%, while WTI remained above $91.
• Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and revived concerns about Middle East supply.
• US commercial crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, substantially more than analysts expected.
• Tight diesel supplies and refinery disruptions are intensifying the energy shock, although weaker fuel demand and rising US production could limit further gains.

Oil prices remained close to six-week highs on Friday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increased the geopolitical premium embedded in global energy markets.

Brent crude traded around $95.80 per barrel, up approximately 0.3% for the session and nearly 9% for the week. West Texas Intermediate traded near $91.70, leaving both benchmarks on course for one of their strongest weekly performances since July.

The latest advance followed several volatile sessions in which Brent moved above $96 as traders assessed whether reduced vessel traffic, attacks on energy infrastructure and growing shortages in refined products could develop into a more serious supply disruption.

Why Is the Oil Price Rising Today?

The main driver behind the latest oil rally is the renewed escalation between Washington and Tehran.

The United States carried out fresh strikes against Iran this week after approximately one month of relative calm. Iran subsequently targeted US military facilities and vessels operating around the Persian Gulf, reviving concerns that the conflict could further restrict energy exports.

Kuwait said its air defences had responded to incoming missiles and drones, while Iran also claimed attacks against US-linked targets in Jordan and Bahrain. Although physical crude supplies have not stopped completely, the renewed fighting has made it more expensive and dangerous for vessels to operate around the Gulf.

The result has been a rapid return of the geopolitical risk premium that had eased following earlier diplomatic efforts. Brent is now more than 20% higher than it was one month ago and approximately 46% above its level a year earlier.

Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls Below Recent Levels

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk facing the oil market. The narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and provides the main export route for several of the world’s largest oil producers.

Only six commodity vessels reportedly passed through the strait on Wednesday, down from 11 on Tuesday and a ten-day average of almost 13. The figures cover vessel movements rather than the exact amount of oil transported, but they indicate that shipowners remain cautious about sending tankers through the area.

Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, has warned that disruptions may persist longer than previously expected and that traffic may not return to normal before the end of the year.

Before the conflict, approximately 21.6 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids passed through Hormuz. The US Energy Information Administration estimated that average flows fell to 4.9 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026, although independent trackers have identified additional shipments involving disabled transponders and ship-to-ship transfers.

The EIA expects the restoration of production and trade patterns to take until early 2027 under its current assumptions. It also estimated that production shutdowns averaged approximately 5.5 million barrels per day in July.

US Crude Inventories Fall More Than Expected

A larger-than-expected decline in US oil inventories added fundamental support to the geopolitical rally.

Commercial crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels during the week ending August 28, reducing total stocks to 424.5 million barrels. Analysts had anticipated a decline of only around 300,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 205.7 million barrels, leaving them approximately 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Distillate inventories increased by about 800,000 barrels to 104.2 million barrels but remained 14% below the five-year average.

US refineries processed approximately 17.5 million barrels per day and operated at 98% of capacity. Such a high utilization rate leaves relatively little room for domestic refiners to increase production rapidly if international fuel shortages worsen.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also declined by 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels. While the reserve remains available as an emergency tool, its reduced size may limit the market impact of additional releases during a prolonged supply shock.

The figures were published in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Diesel Shortages Add Pressure Beyond Crude Oil

The disruption is increasingly affecting refined fuels rather than crude oil alone.

European diesel crack spreads—the difference between the price of diesel and the crude oil used to produce it—have risen above $100 per barrel, reaching record levels. Wholesale diesel prices have climbed to nearly $199 per barrel in southern Europe and approximately $194 in northern Europe.

Russia’s decision to extend its diesel export restrictions through September 30 has tightened the market further. At the same time, refinery maintenance, low European inventories and damage to energy infrastructure in Russia and the Middle East have reduced replacement supplies.

Analysts estimate that global diesel shipments are running approximately 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels per day below required levels. The Financial Times reported that the shortage could keep fuel prices elevated unless demand weakens materially.

Diesel is particularly important for freight transport, agriculture, mining and industrial activity. A prolonged shortage could therefore have broader economic consequences than an increase in gasoline prices alone.

Weaker Demand Could Limit the Oil Rally

Although supply risks favour higher prices, the demand outlook is less supportive.

Total US petroleum products supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day over the latest four-week period, down 4% from a year earlier. Gasoline demand declined 2%, while distillate consumption fell 6%.

Higher prices may produce additional demand destruction if households reduce travel and companies face rising transportation costs. Slowing economic growth would also make it more difficult for Brent to remain above $100 for an extended period.

US crude production increased to approximately 13.86 million barrels per day during the latest week. Imports rose to 6.8 million barrels per day, while exports climbed to approximately 4.5 million barrels per day.

There are also signs that some producers could partially offset the disruption. Iraqi exports increased in August and may rise further in September. Alternative supplies from the United States and Venezuela could provide some relief, although logistics and refinery compatibility limit how quickly those barrels can replace disrupted Middle Eastern grades.

China’s shift toward electric vehicles is another structural restraint on oil consumption. Lower transport-fuel demand has helped China reduce its vulnerability to Hormuz disruptions, even though it remains one of the world’s largest crude importers.

High Oil Prices Complicate the Inflation Outlook

Brent near $96 creates a new challenge for central banks attempting to control inflation.

Higher crude prices increase gasoline, diesel, aviation and shipping costs. Those expenses can eventually appear in consumer prices as companies pass higher transportation and production costs to customers.

The inflation impact is particularly significant because the oil shock is occurring while global government bond yields remain elevated. Investors must determine whether central banks will respond to weaker economic growth or focus on the renewed inflation pressure created by energy prices.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve has room to maintain restrictive interest rates. Weaker employment data may support expectations for a pause, although persistently high oil prices could prevent policymakers from turning significantly more dovish.

Countries that import most of their energy face an additional risk. India’s crude basket recently climbed to $99.35 per barrel, up from $90.19 in August and $82.04 in July. Higher import costs could widen trade deficits, weaken currencies and increase domestic inflation.

Can Brent Crude Break Above $100?

The immediate technical resistance area for Brent sits between $96 and $97. A sustained move above that range could bring the psychological $100 level back into focus.

An expansion of attacks on tankers, additional refinery damage or a further decline in Hormuz traffic could produce a rapid move above $100. Confirmation that major Gulf producers are reducing output because they cannot export their barrels would represent an even stronger bullish catalyst.

On the downside, $95 is the first important support level. A diplomatic breakthrough or evidence that shipping volumes are recovering could push Brent toward $92, followed by the $90 threshold.

The principal oil price scenarios are:

• Further escalation: Additional attacks or lower Hormuz traffic could drive Brent through $100.
• Current disruption continues: Brent may consolidate between $92 and $100 as traders assess actual export volumes.
• Diplomatic progress: A ceasefire or secure shipping agreement could remove part of the geopolitical premium and push prices below $90.
• Demand deterioration: Weak global economic data could offset supply risks and trigger a broader correction.

Brent’s nearly 9% weekly gain shows that the market is again pricing in a meaningful threat to Middle Eastern energy flows. However, whether oil can move decisively above $100 will depend on physical export volumes rather than geopolitical headlines alone.

Trade Oil CFDs 24/7 with Markets.com
Oil markets can move at any time. Stay ready for the next price move with 24/7 Oil CFD trading on Markets.com. Start trading today.