SpaceX Stock Nears IPO Price as Post-Nasdaq-100 Volatility Deepens

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX stock moved back towards its $135 IPO price after sharp declines across Friday and Monday.
• The shares remain far below their early post-listing peak above $225, underlining elevated volatility.
• Nasdaq-100 inclusion can increase index-linked trading activity, but it does not guarantee price support.
• FAA clearance for another Starship test provides an operational catalyst, although launch timing remains subject to change.

SpaceX Shares Retreat Towards Their IPO Level

SpaceX stock has come under renewed pressure as the volatility that followed its Nasdaq-100 inclusion continued to reshape trading in the newly public company.

Shares fell 4.51% on Friday and dropped a further 4.24% on Monday, bringing the price close to its $135 IPO level. Reports placed the stock just above $139 after it traded below $140 during the session, only weeks after reaching an early high above $225.

The pullback highlights the challenge of valuing a company with significant long-term ambitions but a relatively short trading history. SpaceX entered public markets with an exceptionally high profile, supported by its leadership in commercial launches, the expansion of its Starlink satellite network and expectations surrounding Starship’s future role in space transportation.

However, a strong narrative does not remove the risk of rapid price swings. The move from above $225 to near the IPO price shows how quickly expectations can adjust when early enthusiasm gives way to questions about valuation, execution and the timing of future revenue growth.

Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Raises Activity but Does Not Set Direction

SpaceX’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 placed the stock in focus for institutional investors and index-tracking funds. Such inclusion can generate significant trading flows because passive funds need to hold shares in proportion to the company’s index weighting.

That technical demand can increase liquidity, but it should not be confused with a lasting endorsement of valuation. Once index funds complete their initial portfolio adjustments, the share price must still be supported by company performance, financial results and investor confidence in the growth outlook.

For traders, this creates an environment in which headline-driven movements may remain pronounced. Index-related flows, profit-taking after the debut rally and changing expectations for the broader technology sector can all influence short-term price action.

FAA Clearance Brings Starship Back Into Focus

The latest stock move comes as SpaceX prepares for another important operational milestone. The US Federal Aviation Administration has completed its review of the May Starship booster mishap, clearing the way for the company to proceed with its next test flight from Texas as early as Thursday.

The clearance is significant because Starship is central to SpaceX’s longer-term strategy. The system is designed to support heavier payloads, more frequent launches, expanded Starlink deployment and future lunar missions. Its eventual reusability could also materially lower launch costs, although that outcome depends on sustained technical progress.

For now, FAA approval removes a regulatory obstacle rather than guaranteeing a successful mission. Test flights remain inherently complex, and investors are likely to watch the launch for evidence of improvements in booster performance, re-entry systems and payload deployment capabilities.

Valuation Debate Remains the Central Question

The SpaceX investment case rests on a powerful combination of existing commercial operations and long-term optionality. Starlink continues to offer a potentially large recurring-revenue opportunity, while Starship could broaden the company’s role across satellites, defence, telecommunications and space exploration.

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, reflecting a highly optimistic view of SpaceX’s growth potential. Yet such targets are scenario-based estimates rather than guarantees, especially for a stock still establishing its public-market track record.

The gap between bullish and cautious assessments illustrates the main issue facing investors: how much future success should be priced in today? A premium valuation may be justified if Starlink scales rapidly and Starship reaches reliable commercial operations. Conversely, delays, high capital requirements or weaker-than-expected growth could lead to further reassessment.

What Could Move SpaceX Stock Next?

Several factors are likely to shape the next phase of trading:

• Starship test results: Progress in launch reliability and reusability would support the company’s strategic narrative.
• Starlink growth: Subscriber expansion, enterprise contracts and satellite deployment will be crucial to the revenue outlook.
• Index and institutional flows: Post-Nasdaq-100 trading may remain volatile as investors adjust positions.
• Broader market sentiment: Higher risk aversion or pressure on growth stocks could weigh on SpaceX regardless of company-specific developments.
• Valuation updates: New analyst coverage, earnings disclosures and guidance on commercial operations may influence expectations.

SpaceX stock’s retreat towards its IPO price does not invalidate its long-term ambitions. It does, however, show that investors are demanding clearer evidence that operational progress can justify the high expectations built into the company’s valuation.