White House Reportedly Nearing Russia Peace Deal to End Ukraine Conflict

Key Takeaways:

• Secret negotiations between the US and Russia regarding a potential peace agreement.
• Upcoming visit by high-ranking US military officials to Kyiv.
• Uncertainty surrounding the details of the agreement and the stance of Ukraine and European nations.
• Pressure on Zelensky to accept the deal given internal and external circumstances.

The White House is reportedly nearing a new peace agreement with Russia aimed at ending the three-and-a-half-year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to sources familiar with the matter. A senior White House official stated that they expect a framework agreement to end the conflict by the end of this month, or even "as early as this week."

Information suggests that things are moving at a rapid pace. On Tuesday, news broke that US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll would be making an unusual trip to Kyiv, accompanied by two four-star generals and several other high-ranking US military officials. The delegation is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and high-level Ukrainian officials.

According to Reuters, Zelensky also intends to travel to Ankara to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss peace talks. Zelensky merely stated, "We have received some positions and signals from the United States."

But what exactly is being discussed? Barak Ravid, a reporter for Axios, revealed details of a peace plan reached through direct, secret consultations between the White House and Moscow. Ravid reported that White House Special Envoy William Witkov held three days of talks with Russian representative Dmitriev in Miami at the end of last month, and that a peace plan consisting of 28 points is now on the table. Trump administration officials have indicated that they are on the verge of a "major breakthrough."

The challenge lies in the fact that the new peace plan does not appear to include direct input from the Ukrainian side, nor does it take into account the views of the United States' European allies. Furthermore, details regarding how to deal with Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and providing security guarantees for Ukraine after peace remains unclear.

There appears to be optimism and confidence within the White House, and the plan seems to be presented to Zelensky as a fait accompli. A senior White House official stated, "What we are going to give Ukraine is reasonable." The Trump administration believes that Zelensky will be forced to accept the terms presented to him due to field and internal pressures, including a growing corruption scandal.

Regarding other European countries, the official bluntly stated, "We don't care much about the Europeans. The key is whether Ukraine will accept it or not."

The media concluded that "The United States believes that Ukraine's current situation - given the recent series of corruption scandals plaguing Zelensky, and the current situation on the front lines - puts Ukraine in a position where it can be persuaded to accept this agreement. They say it is reasonable, a plan that they believe Ukraine can swallow."

Russian representative Dmitriev told Axios that he is optimistic because "the prevailing feeling is that the Russian position has been listened to this time."

In addition, Dmitriev explained that this 28-point plan is not just a ceasefire agreement, but rather "a proposal to address the conflict in Ukraine, discuss how to restore US-Russian relations, and respond to Russian security concerns."

If the parties' statements materialize, it seems that the market is heading towards a crucial turning point.

For Trump, this will be a significant moment. He pledged during his election campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict "on the first day of his term," although he later acknowledged that it was more difficult than he had imagined. And for a president seeking to win the Nobel Peace Prize, reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine, any peace agreement in Ukraine, may be very attractive.

But an official response from Ukraine is still needed. According to Zelensky's previous public statements, he is likely to respond strongly to any part of the agreement that he considers "unacceptable." Ukraine does not want to be forced to cede sovereign territory, but the pressure will be immense. And if the three parties can reach an agreement, the previously delayed Trump-Putin summit will almost certainly be held in its wake.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian cities, and Zelensky said dozens were injured and nine people died. He added: "Russia must be held accountable for its actions."