US Government Reopening: Inflation & Treasury Yields Key to Bitcoin Liquidity

US Government Reopening: An Overview

With the US Senate passing a short-term funding bill to finance government agencies until January 30, 2026, now awaiting House approval, the biggest market headwind has temporarily subsided. This allows statistical agencies to resume operations and Treasury auctions to be rescheduled, enabling the resumption of official data releases that underpin interest rate expectations and the dollar's value. Consequently, inflation and Treasury issuance once again become the core variables influencing Bitcoin's trajectory.

Impact of Resumed Economic Data Releases

For cryptocurrencies, the core value of the government reopening lies in restoring macroeconomic data supply, allowing Treasury issuance to return to a predictable cadence, and clarifying short-term real interest rate trends. These factors directly influence Bitcoin's market risk appetite and spot ETF fund flows.

During the shutdown, agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of critical data. Now, the data calendar is clearly defined: the October CPI and real income data will be released on November 13th, the PPI on November 14th, and the import/export price index on November 18th. This data will allow the market to shift focus from fiscal news back to inflation and the labor market, consequently adjusting interest rate bets and dollar trends.

Real Interest Rates and the Bitcoin Market

For Bitcoin, the 10-year TIPS implied real interest rate is a key barometer. The rate currently stands at 1.83%, higher than mid-year levels. If CPI data is moderate, the real interest rate is expected to decline, easing financial conditions, which would be positive for risk assets. This could also narrow ETF price spreads and improve secondary cryptocurrency market depth.

Cryptocurrency order book depth has significantly improved compared to 2022-2023, with lower slippage on large transactions, allowing macro-driven fund flows to transmit more smoothly to prices.

Treasury Supply and its Impact

Treasury supply plans are clear: a quarterly refunding will issue $125 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, with $26.8 billion in new financing. Auctions will be conducted in stages from Monday to Thursday. The Treasury has clarified that it will maintain stable nominal interest rates on bonds in the coming quarters, flexibly adjusting funds through Treasury bills and conducting repurchase operations to support the market. This will reduce short-term term premium volatility, making the CPI the core influencer of interest rate trends.

As of November 7th, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance stood at $943 billion, higher than the same period in 2024, providing a buffer against auction normalization. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield currently stands at around 4.1%, and the interplay between CPI data and Treasury issuance will dominate interest rate trends this week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

In addition, spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain a significant variable. Early October saw record inflows, while US regional funds turned to net outflows in early November. In the next 1-2 weeks, Bitcoin liquidity will face three major paths:

• First, if CPI targets are met and Treasury refunding is smooth, the real interest rate will fall to 1.6%-1.7%, the dollar will weaken, and ETFs may see small net inflows.
• Second, if CPI is high and the Treasury issues additional Treasury bills, the real interest rate will exceed 1.9%, ETF outflows will resume, and cryptocurrencies will exhibit a defensive movement.
• Third, if House approval faces obstacles or CPI data is anomalous, fund flows will fluctuate, and institutional investors will closely monitor signals from Treasury issuance and repurchase plans.

With real interest rates currently high, Bitcoin's price will react to inflation data and dollar trends.