Will Powell Stay? Examining the Options for the Fed Chair After His Term Ends

As the US President approaches the announcement of a potential successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, questions arise regarding Powell's future and potential role within the central bank.

Deutsche Bank highlighted in a recent report the possibility of Powell remaining as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his term as Chairman concludes. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank pointed out that this is legally permissible, although prevailing norms suggest otherwise.

Historical Precedents: Hamlin and Eccles

Historically, only two former Fed Chairs have remained on the Board after their chairmanship ended. The first was Charles Hamlin, the first Fed Chair, who continued as a Board member for twenty years after his term expired in 1916. The second was Marriner Eccles, who remained on the Board after being sidelined by President Truman in 1948.

Eccles defended the central bank's independence by remaining on the Board, which might resonate with Powell given current political circumstances.

Powell's Potential Scenario

If Powell perceives a threat to the Fed's independence, he might choose to remain on the Board after his term as Chairman concludes in 2026. By retaining his seat on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), he would still have a vote in monetary policy decisions.

However, this decision largely depends on who the next Fed Chair is and the political climate at the time. It remains to be seen whether Powell will take this unusual path, but history provides some relevant examples.


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