Is SpaceX Stock Worth Just $10 to $30? Scott Galloway Challenges Its $143 Price

SpaceX shares remain dramatically overvalued despite falling well below their post-IPO peak, according to New York University professor, technology commentator and bestselling author Scott Galloway.

Speaking on his podcast this week, Galloway estimated that SpaceX stock is worth between $10 and $30 per share. That assessment stands far below Tuesday’s closing price of $143.34, when the stock declined 1.98%.

At Galloway’s upper estimate of $30, SpaceX shares would need to lose approximately 79% of their current value. His $10 downside case implies a decline of roughly 93%.

Key Takeaways: Scott Galloway believes SpaceX stock is worth only $10–$30, arguing that its valuation has been inflated by a limited public float and index-related demand. Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble has separately identified SpaceX as a major short opportunity, forecasting a 50% decline by year-end and placing fair value near $30.

SpaceX Valuation Remains the Central Concern

SpaceX completed its initial public offering in June, selling 555.6 million Class A shares at $135 each. The deal valued Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and artificial-intelligence company at approximately $1.77 trillion and raised about $75 billion, making it one of the largest IPOs ever completed.

The $135 offering price was confirmed by SpaceX before the shares began trading under the SPCX ticker on June 12.

Following the listing, SpaceX stock briefly climbed as high as $225. It subsequently lost about 45% of its value, falling to approximately $123 before recovering above the IPO price. Despite this correction, Galloway said the shares remain “crazy overvalued.”

“This is a $10 to $30 stock,” he said, according to Business Insider.

Galloway’s argument is not that SpaceX lacks technological achievements. He described Musk as one of the most important engineers of the current era. Instead, he questioned whether the company’s underlying financial performance can justify a valuation approaching $2 trillion.

Limited Share Supply May Have Amplified the Rally

Galloway argued that SpaceX benefited from an unusually favorable market structure after its public debut.

Only around 4%–5% of the company’s outstanding stock was initially available for public trading. Such a limited float can produce sharp price movements because relatively small changes in demand must compete for a restricted supply of shares.

The stock’s rapid addition to the Nasdaq-100 created another source of demand. Funds tracking the index were required to purchase SpaceX shares regardless of whether their managers considered the valuation attractive.

According to Galloway, the combination of limited supply and index-driven buying helped push the market price above a level supported by conventional fundamentals.

That theory does not necessarily mean the stock will immediately fall. A small float can also continue supporting prices, particularly when retail enthusiasm and institutional buying remain strong. However, additional lockup expirations could increase the number of shares available for sale and weaken the scarcity premium.

$25 Billion Bond Sale Raises Questions

Galloway also pointed to SpaceX’s unusually large debt issuance shortly after the IPO.

On June 23, the company priced $25 billion of unsecured senior notes across five maturities extending from 2031 to 2056. SpaceX said the proceeds would repay outstanding borrowings under a bridge-loan facility, cover transaction expenses and fund general corporate purposes. The details were disclosed in the company’s official bond announcement.

Galloway questioned why SpaceX moved so quickly to issue debt after reporting more than $100 billion in cash and equivalents. In his view, the financing highlights the capital-intensive nature of the company’s expansion and suggests that future growth may increasingly depend on borrowed money.

It also complicates the debate over what SpaceX represents. Investors are not simply valuing a rocket-launch and satellite-internet operator. The company’s combination with xAI and its heavy investment in computing infrastructure have introduced an additional AI growth narrative.

MarketWatch noted that investors still lack a clear framework for categorizing SpaceX, which now combines launch services, Starlink connectivity and artificial intelligence.

George Noble Sees Another 50% Decline

Galloway is not the only prominent skeptic. George Noble, a hedge fund manager who previously managed Fidelity’s Overseas Fund, has described SpaceX and Tesla as two of the market’s most attractive short-selling opportunities.

Noble expects SpaceX stock to lose around 50% by year-end and estimates its longer-term fair value at approximately $30 per share. He has criticized the company’s valuation, its rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion and the exposure passive retirement funds gained through index ownership.

At current levels, a fall to $30 would be substantially greater than Noble’s year-end 50% forecast, suggesting his near-term target and ultimate fair-value estimate represent different time horizons.

Noble’s bearish thesis focuses on valuation, future share supply and the gap between SpaceX’s revenue and market capitalization. He also argues that enthusiasm surrounding Musk and the company’s AI ambitions has allowed investors to overlook high spending and continuing losses outside Starlink.

Galloway Says Shorting SpaceX Is Still Too Risky

Despite his extremely low valuation estimate, Galloway said he would not short SpaceX.

His hesitation reflects the risk of betting against a company with a devoted retail following and a chief executive capable of generating excitement around ambitious new projects. Announcements involving lunar infrastructure, orbital data centers or advanced AI systems could drive another speculative rally even without an immediate improvement in financial results.

For investors, the disagreement highlights the unusual valuation challenge surrounding SpaceX. Bears see a stock trading far ahead of its earnings and cash-flow potential. Bulls see a rare platform spanning reusable rockets, satellite communications and AI infrastructure.

The company’s eventual value will depend on whether those businesses can produce enough sustainable profit to justify the expectations already embedded in its share price.

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