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Thursday Nov 6 2025 21:50
2 min
Bitcoin is currently trading below its fair value relative to gold when adjusted for volatility, according to analysts at JPMorgan. The rise in gold volatility during its rally to all-time highs in October makes the precious metal riskier, and Bitcoin (BTC) “more attractive to investors,” analysts suggest.
Based on the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio falling to 1.8, meaning BTC carries 1.8 times the risk of gold, the report states: “By taking into account this volatility ratio, which implies that bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, then mechanically, the market cap of bitcoin at $2.1 trillion currently would have to rise by close to 67%, implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000. This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for Bitcoin over the next 6-12 months.”
The theoretical price forecast from JPMorgan comes amidst lowered BTC price predictions from several market analysts and investment firms after BTC fell below $100,000, breaching a critical level of psychological support for the first time in four months.
Some analysts now forecast that BTC is unlikely to recover the $125,000 price level by the end of 2025, due to several factors, including macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs and the Oct. 10 market crash that caused the largest 24-hour liquidation in crypto history.
Investment company Galaxy lowered its Bitcoin 2025 forecast to $120,000 from $185,000, citing several factors, including BTC whales offloading 400,000 coins in October, investor rotation into competing narratives, and changing market dynamics.
“Bitcoin has entered a new phase, what we call the ‘maturity era,’ in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate,” said Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research.
Thorn added that the presence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) soaking up liquidity means that BTC gains will likely come at a slower pace than in the past.
Risk Warning: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Markets.com. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Cryptocurrency CFD trading restrictions may apply depending on jurisdiction.
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