Nike to Exit S&P 100 After Nearly 80% Stock Decline

Key Takeaways

• Nike will leave the S&P 100 before trading opens on September 21, 2026, while remaining in the broader S&P 500.
• Shares closed at $38.40 on September 4, approximately 78% below their November 2021 closing peak.
• Weak direct sales and pressure in China continue to challenge Nike’s recovery, despite improving wholesale revenue.

Nike Loses Its S&P 100 Position

Nike’s removal from the S&P 100 adds a symbolic setback to its prolonged turnaround, as the sportswear company works to rebuild growth following a steep decline in its share price.

The change takes effect before the US market opens on September 21, 2026, as part of the quarterly index rebalance. Nike, Honeywell Aerospace, Simon Property Group and Colgate-Palmolive will leave the index, while Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and Sandisk will join. The changes are intended to keep the indices representative of their respective market-capitalisation ranges.

The reshuffle brings four technology companies into the index while removing businesses across several other sectors. For Nike, the immediate question is whether its operational recovery can rebuild investor confidence after years of deteriorating stock-market performance.

Nike Stock Trades Near a 12-Year Low

Nike shares finished September 4 at $38.40, near their lowest level in 12 years. Compared with the November 2021 closing peak of $177.51, that represents a decline of approximately 78.4%. The stock was also down roughly 39% from the beginning of 2026.

The distinction between a historical decline and an immediate market reaction matters. Nike’s retreat from its peak developed over almost five years; it should not be presented as a loss caused by the September index announcement.

The scale of the decline also creates a demanding recovery path. From $38.40, the shares would need to rise approximately 362% to return to $177.51. That calculation illustrates the distance from the previous peak, rather than providing a forecast or a measure of fair value.

Remaining in the S&P 500 Limits the Scope of the Change

Nike will remain a constituent of the S&P 500 after leaving the narrower S&P 100. Its exit therefore does not represent a stock-exchange delisting or removal from the broader large-cap benchmark.

For investors, the practical distinction concerns which portfolios may need to adjust their holdings. Strategies tracking the S&P 100 may rebalance around the effective date, while continued S&P 500 membership preserves Nike’s place in portfolios following that benchmark.

Any resulting trading pressure remains uncertain. The announcement alone does not establish how much stock will change hands, whether investors have already anticipated the adjustment, or how the shares will perform afterward.

Also read S&P 500 Forecast and Predictions for 2026, 2027 and 2030

Wholesale Growth Offsets Weak Direct Sales

Nike reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.4 billion, unchanged on a reported basis but down 2% excluding currency movements.

Sales channels moved in different directions. Wholesale revenue rose 6% to $27.5 billion, while Nike Direct revenue declined 6% to $17.7 billion. Nike Brand Digital sales fell 12%, highlighting continued weakness in the company’s online business.

These figures suggest an uneven recovery. Stronger wholesale sales provide support, but the simultaneous contraction in direct sales leaves the company without broad-based growth.

For the turnaround to strengthen, improved retailer orders would ideally be accompanied by stronger consumer purchases, healthier pricing and more consistent demand across channels. Wholesale expansion alone cannot establish that those conditions have been achieved.

China and Competition Complicate Recovery

Greater China remains a significant obstacle. Fiscal 2026 revenue in the region fell 11% on a reported basis to approximately $5.85 billion, with the currency-neutral decline reaching 13%.

Nike also faces a more competitive sportswear market. Hoka and On have expanded their presence in performance running, while Anta and Li-Ning add competitive pressure in China. Nike’s response includes rebuilding wholesale distribution and repositioning its digital business around full-price sales.

That combination makes the recovery more complex than simply increasing advertising or releasing additional products. Nike needs to strengthen demand while managing distribution, pricing and inventory.

A recovery driven primarily by discounts could improve sales volumes without delivering equivalent progress in profitability. Conversely, reducing promotions may support brand positioning while initially weighing on revenue. Investors therefore need to assess sales growth alongside the quality of those sales.

Elliott Hill’s Turnaround Faces a Profitability Test

Chief executive Elliott Hill has prioritised sports-focused products, stronger brand execution and improvements in how Nike serves consumers.

The latest earnings figures also require careful interpretation. Fourth-quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.72, including a $0.52 benefit related to expected tariff recoveries. Gross margin reached 49.2%, with approximately nine percentage points attributable to that recovery benefit.

Those effects make the headline profit improvement an incomplete measure of operating progress. Future results will offer a clearer test of whether product demand, pricing and cost control can support earnings without a comparable benefit.

What Could Change the Outlook for Nike Stock?

The September 21 rebalance is the immediate calendar event, but the more consequential test is whether Nike can deliver sustained operating improvement.

A stronger recovery case would involve stabilising direct sales, narrower declines in China and wholesale growth supported by consumer demand. Improving profitability without exceptional benefits would provide further evidence that the reset is working.

The downside risk is that competitive pressure and weak demand prolong the adjustment, leaving investors waiting longer for consistent growth. Nike’s index exit increases attention on that challenge, but subsequent business results will provide the evidence needed to assess its recovery.