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Tuesday Dec 2 2025 00:00
2 min
UBS estimates based on balance sheet data suggest that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may not have intervened in the foreign exchange market during October to halt the safe-haven ascent of the Swiss franc. This conclusion contradicts the expectations of some observers who saw potential intervention signals in the Franc's movements.
Zurich-based bank economist Florian Germanier estimates that the SNB's trading activity in October ranged from buying up to 20 million Swiss francs ($25 million USD) worth of foreign currencies to selling up to 50 million Swiss francs. These figures are significantly lower than the substantial 5.1 billion Swiss francs the central bank spent in the second quarter.
“There’s no sign the SNB intervened,” Germanier stated. “That rough range doesn’t necessarily imply officials took action – the balance sheet data shows much stronger signals in periods when they do.”
October saw fluctuations in the Swiss franc exchange rate against the Euro, approaching 0.92, which many traders considered a key level. A reversal then occurred, triggering speculation as to whether policymakers had sold the currency to curb its rise. However, they apparently did not, consistent with a shift in the SNB’s strategy from large-scale Franc sales in the past to more cautious interventions.
Germanier added that the SNB might have entered the market in November in response to the Swiss franc hitting a 10-year high after Switzerland reached a trade agreement with the United States. He pointed to volatility in Swiss money markets in mid-November, when the franc rose to its strongest level since January 2015 (when the SNB removed its exchange rate cap), as a potential indicator.
“The volatility we saw could be explained by intervention,” he said. “But it could also be driven by other factors.”The SNB delays the release of its market trading data by three months after the end of any quarter. This means the official figures for the October to December period will not be published until the end of March 2026.
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