Introduction: Trump's Absence and Foreign Policy Implications

In the absence of former US President Donald Trump from the G20 summit, attention turns to Vice President Mike Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to understand the direction of US foreign policy. These two individuals are pivotal in shaping the course of US foreign policy, raising questions about which of them will succeed Trump in leading the Republican Party.

Vance and Rubio: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

Despite denials from insiders about a fierce rivalry, Trump himself portrays it as a power struggle. Both represent the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, but in different styles. Rubio, the seasoned Republican hawk, seeks to maintain private channels of communication with Trump, while Vance, a newcomer to the world of politics, embodies the spirit of rebellion against the elites that characterizes the MAGA movement.

The Dynamics of Their Relationship

Vance and Rubio seek to downplay the intensity of their competition, with each describing the other as a close friend. However, Trump is well aware that his time in office is limited, which prompts him to raise the issue of succession between them. Some believe that these skirmishes are intended to avoid portraying Trump as a weak president.

Specialization and Division of Labor

The difference in their working style is evident from the roles they play in different diplomatic files. For example, Rubio played a crucial role in reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, while Vance traveled to Israel to ensure the continuation of this fragile agreement.

Allies' Perspective

Many of the United States' allies prefer to deal with Rubio, given his long experience and more moderate style. However, they also recognize that Vance has increasing influence as Vice President.

Who is the Next Republican Leader?

Although Vance enjoys strong support from the MAGA base, Rubio has extensive experience and strong relationships in the political establishment. The question remains open as to which of them will be able to garner the support needed to succeed Trump in leading the Republican Party.

Conclusion

Vance and Rubio represent the future of American foreign policy. By understanding their different styles and the dynamics of their relationship, we can gain insight into the potential directions of American foreign policy in the years to come.


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